A rapid reduction in smoking cigarettes in young adults in the US have found researchers at the University of California in San Diego and note that this reduction “is a clear proof that the smoking epidemic will end in our lifetime”. On the contrary, progress in smoking cessation is much slower in adults over 50 years.

In the study, published in the Jama Network Open, data was investigated for 1.77 million people. It was found that there were major differences in smoking rates between US states both in the 1990s and 2022, when study authors received estimates of smoking prevalence.

The most significant reduction in smoking occurred in states with historically high smoking rates. The researchers also found that these states had a greater decrease in smoking young adults compared to other states with lower historical smoking rates. However, the profit was offset by a much slower decrease among adults 50 years and over, and this could extend the burden of public health by diseases and deaths related to smoking.

Since the 1950s, when researchers first linked smoking to lung cancer, national smoking rates have declined dramatically. In 1955, 56.9% of US adults smoked. By the change of the century, this percentage had decreased more than half and by 2022 it had reappeared by 50%. This trend is expected to continue, with smoking rates projected to be reduced again by half by 2035. Recent evidence shows that states that have made the most progress in reducing smoking have also seen the largest reductions in mortality from lung cancer.

“The rapid decline in smoking among young adults is clear evidence that the smoking epidemic will end in our lifetime,” Mattone Stone, first author of research and assistant professor at the University of Public Health School, notes. He states that “we predict that the national prevalence of smoking will be below 5% by 2035”. However, he continues, “the much slower decrease in smokers over the age of 50, especially in states with high smoking rates in the past, will mean that high rates of lung cancer, heart disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease will be caused by life.”

John Pierce, author of the study and professor at the University of Public Health School, adds that “while the ongoing reduction in cigarette smoking is a long history of public health success, recent evidence shows that the tobacco industry has successfully recruited. Further research is needed to assess the long -term impact of this turn. “