Opinion – Esper Kallás: The Covid-19 film still doesn’t have a ready script

deadly virus. A quick search for this expression in films and a long list appears, starting with “Contagion”, perhaps the most realistic film of a supposedly terrible pandemic, going through “Twelve Monkeys”, to the appealing “World War Z”, where infected turned into zombies looking for brains.

In many of them, a virus is imagined that has gained aggressiveness to annihilate humans, in many cases with dark refinements. But all to satisfy the desire of the filmmakers and attract the audience fascinated by the drama.

From fiction to reality, it is worth reflecting on the facts. And, of course, contextualize in the current pandemic.

All species undergo a process of evolution, driven by natural selection. In other words, it is not the strongest or the wisest that prevails, but the one that fits best, as Charles Darwin said in his famous 1859 book, “The Origin of Species.”

With viruses it would be no different. In fact, the speed with which they multiply is so great that it is much easier to document the evolutionary process. In humans, for example, it takes much longer, making the delay and subtlety in the changes, although striking, make some doubt the evolution of the species advocating creationist fantasy.

The growing number of variants of the coronavirus that causes Covid-19, SARS-CoV-2 inevitably leads to the question: what will happen to its ability to cause disease?

Using Greek letters, the WHO has been classifying variants of concern that have emerged. This is because they gained more transmission capacity, respecting the principle of evolution. Thus, they were replacing the previous ones. Again, the best adapted one prevails.

The aggressiveness of the disease did not follow the same path. It was floating around for each variant. Expected? Yes, because the ability to attack the patient makes little difference to the virus. When the worst phase of the disease begins, usually in the second week after the onset of symptoms, the main phase of transmission has passed.

It was this reflection that a group of researchers made two days ago. When analyzing data from England by the different variants, they show that the path of aggression has been random.

There was some hope that the virus was heading, with the accumulation of mutations, to transform itself into a less aggressive germ with the arrival of the omicron. Many came to think that the “solution” to the pandemic would come with a less aggressive virus. Some studies suggest, in fact, that it is a milder virus, both in experimental animal models and also seen in cases of Covid-19 in some countries.

Too early to say. A reflection of this was the surge in hospitalizations and deaths in some places, especially where vaccination coverage in older people was low, such as Hong Kong, Germany and Austria.

There is a lot of exercise for students of viral evolution to try to see what lies ahead. Unlike film producers and screenwriters, it is necessary to base themselves on data on the changes of the virus so far and to simulate which way new ones will occur.

New variants will come, always looking for more transmissibility, either by increasing the amount of virus in the upper respiratory tract (nose, throat, as they increase the spread in a sneeze, for example), or by circumventing the defenses built by vaccines or even by infections by variants that have already circulated. What price will viruses take on human lives?

The future remains uncertain.