(News Bulletin 247) – Graphic configuration still just as heavy for the Nasdaq Composite, which has closed continuously below its 20-day moving average (in dark blue) since April 8, against a backdrop of very clear tightening of American monetary policy. With an amplification effect relative to the S&P 500, the flagship index of technology stocks is bearing the full brunt, at these valuation levels of its star weightings, of the nascent competition from government bond yields.
Added to this picture is a new market reality: [les] shares have become[e]s more sensitive to disappointments in macroeconomic data”, notes Alexandre Baradez, head of market analysis at IG France. Since 2020, “the bad figures were then received relatively favorably because they were the guarantee that the central banks would remain accommodating even further. for a long time and the good economic figures as well as better-than-expected company results were also greeted on the rise by the financial markets. But the context has changed,” slice M Baradez.
It is in this context of increased sensitivity of the equity markets to the publications that investors read yesterday the publication of durable goods orders in the United States, which missed expectations, which brings to 5 the number of major indicators under the consensus since the beginning of the week: 2 PMI IHS, new home sales, the Richmond Fed manufacturing indicator, and durable goods orders.
Next major meeting: PCE prices across the Atlantic tomorrow, the measure of choice for the Fed in its assessment of the rise in prices. But for now, it is the preliminary GDP growth data for the first quarter that has just been released, missing – again! – expectations, with a contraction of 1.5%.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The narrow trading range that we identified between 13,330 and 13,838 points was broken under conditions of volumes, volatility, and very significant candles. The marubozu plotted on Thursday 04/21 shows in particular a mobilization of the selling side throughout the session, until a close almost exactly on the low points, opening the way to a bearish target CT at 12,640 points. The latter was broken, after a very nervous hesitation in the second part of week 17. The warnings then came on.
Below 12,140 points, an intermediate figure between bevel and triangle, with entry from above, is not very attractive. Negative opinion issued and maintained as long as the index closes below its 20-day moving average (in dark blue).
FORECAST
Considering the key chart factors we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
This bearish scenario is valid as long as the Nasdaq Composite index is trading below the resistance at 12140.00 points.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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