EUR / USD: Pending a suitable entry point

(News Bulletin 247) – While the US markets are in the midst of digesting Thanksgiving turkey, it is the European markets that have woken up with a hangover, discovering the closing levels of major Asian markets. Explanations: A new South African variant of the coronavirus has ignited the powder, causing, even though its study is only just beginning, a violent reaction in the markets. Paradoxically, the Euro, which is nevertheless a reliable barometer of risk appetite, is taking advantage of the (virtual) absence of American benchmarks to develop a technical rebound. It should be noted that Wall Street, closed yesterday for Thanksgiving, reopens this Friday, for a truncated session.

“B.1.1.529”: that’s its sweet name. According to the scientists behind this discovery, it has the potential to spread very quickly. It tends to quickly replace other variants. It is also not known at this stage whether the vaccines currently available maintain their effectiveness.

On the monetary policy side yesterday, the minutes of the last ECB meeting showed that the Frankfurt Institution did not expect to have enough data as of December to take a final position on the evolution of the inflation. The institution therefore intends to retain room for maneuver beyond this deadline. On the Fed’s side, several officials are prepared to consider an accelerated tightening of market support measures as well as a faster hike in interest rates if high prices persist, according to the minutes (” minutes “in English) of the November meeting, released Wednesday evening.

Unlike the day before, Thursday’s statistical program was much leaner. Note all the same the slight downward revision of German GDP in Q3, to + 1.7% from one quarter to the next.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The seller’s current was strongly reinforced by the break of a technical zone at 1.1530, on marubozu November 10. This is a major fact, which resulted in a massive release of selling energy. The short term is aligned with the medium term, bearish, on the Euro / Dollar currency pair, but the entry point is no longer optimal, as the probabilities of the formation of a protest rebound increase at this stage. Traders will temporarily prefer to stay out of the spot while waiting for a suitable entry point.

MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST

In view of the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the price of the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD) is positioned between the support at 1.1150 USD and the resistance at 1.1360 USD.

DAILY DATA CHART

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