(News Bulletin 247) – The Nasdaq Composite (+1.43% to 10,798 points), which was not trading on Monday due to a public holiday (Juneteenth), should open in positive territory on Tuesday, despite the firmness of the yields of the 10-year government bonds, approaching 3.30%.
“Risks remain,” recalls Fabiana Fedeli, Director of Equity and Diversified Management at M&G: “additional sanctions imposed on Russia, for example on natural gas, a destruction of demand leading to a recession and a potentially excessive tightening of monetary policies by central banks which seek to find a balance between inflation and growth, and above all, the impact all of this can have on company profits.”
GS analysts now put the risk of a recession in the United States at 30% in the course of 2023. The black series of macroeconomic statistics off target last week which will undoubtedly have weighed in this new assessment, will it continue this week? See you especially on the second part of the week with the PMI (IHS) and registrations for unemployment benefits on Thursday, then Friday with the revised data from the consumer confidence index (U-Mich). In the immediate future, sales of old homes will be published at 4:00 p.m., expected at 5,400,000 in May.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The working matrix remains unchanged, bearish in spite of the moreover timid reaction yesterday with regard to the initial ebb.
The narrow trading range that we identified between 13,330 and 13,838 points was broken under conditions of volumes, volatility, and very significant candles. The marubozu plotted on Thursday 04/21 shows in particular a mobilization of the selling side throughout the session, until a close almost exactly on the low points, opening the way to a bearish target CT at 12,640 points. The latter was broken, after a hesitantly nervous hesitation on the second part of week 17.
The warnings then came on and have not gone out permanently since. The harami envisaged on Monday has not been validated, and the relatively large candle, by its lower shadow, can serve as a framework for the start of a short-term bearish inflection. The reintegration of the lower part of the 20-day moving average (in dark blue), validated, brings a clear bearish message.
Friday’s closing level off the weekly lows, which we put on watch, brings an additional bearish reading. The very clear price / volume divergence has been unappealing since May 25, was followed by a release of selling energy out of the bottom of a micro-diamond, followed by the formation of two large bearish gaps, the last of which was only partially regained on Wednesday 15.
A fragile oblique guardrail could however support prices in the immediate future.
FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 11000.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 10200.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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