(News Bulletin 247) – While in the very short term, the technical rebound of the Euro is catalyzed by the great upturn in the dollar against the backdrop of a sudden decline in oil prices, the appetite for risk is not no less non-existent, as scientists are looking into the in-depth study of the new variant of the coronary artery virus with Covid-19, named Omicron since it was deemed “worrying” by the World Health Organization “.
“To better understand the gravity of the situation, answers will be needed to the following three questions: Is the Omicron variant more contagious than the Delta variant? Is it more dangerous? Are existing vaccines effective against this new variant? ” asks César Perez Ruiz, Head of Investments and CIO at Pictet Wealth Management.
“Economically, we know that appropriate fiscal and monetary measures will be taken if necessary.”
However, the question of the room for maneuver, extremely thin, inevitably arises. Especially since the latest figures on inflation in Europe are causing trouble and putting more pressure on the ECB at the worst possible time. In details, inflation corrected for volatile elements comes out at an annual rate of 2.6%, against a consensus of 2.3%, and 2.0% for the final data of last month … Regarding the broadest product base, including energy in particular, prices jump 4.9%, according to EuroStat.
The equation is therefore particularly complex for central banks, on both sides of the Atlantic.
“Even without further restrictions, the fifth wave and Omicron are likely to impact consumer confidence and make them more cautious. Against a backdrop of rising fears of infections, we can expect a drop in consumption of healthcare services. leisure activities, such as restaurants, travel and social activities, which will have a negative impact on growth, ”said ING in a note on France.
To be continued for the United States on Tuesday, the Chicago PMI at 3:45 p.m. and the closely followed consumer confidence index (Conference Board) at 4:00 p.m.
At midday on the forex market, the Euro was trading against 1,1360$ about.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The seller’s current was strongly reinforced by the break of a technical zone at 1.1530, on marubozu November 10. This is a major fact, which resulted in a massive release of selling energy. The short term is aligned with the medium term, bearish, on the Euro / Dollar currency pair, but the entry point is no longer optimal, as the probabilities of the formation of a protest rebound increase at this stage. Forex traders will temporarily prefer to stay out of the spot pending an adequate entry point.
MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will keep this opinion neutral as long as the price of the pair Euro Dollar (EURUSD) is positioned between the support at 1.1150 USD and the resistance at 1.1360 USD.
DAILY DATA CHART
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Source: Tradingsat
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