(News Bulletin 247) – For the moment, “Omicron” has absolutely not made investors panic on American growth files, big technology stocks in mind. To wonder if cynically, the virtual annihilation of the probabilities of three rate hikes in 2020 – GS mentioned – did not help their stock market affairs. In any case, it does not interfere with their appeal. The Nasdaq Composite index, the flagship index of technology stocks on the American stock market, managed to gain 1.88% on Monday to 15,782 in recovered volumes.
This health announcement in any case is likely to “see the probabilities of a Fed rate hike decrease for May and June, shifting a little more the possibility of seeing such an increase in the short term”, for Vincent Boy (IG France ). What to expect now? In the coming weeks, “crucial” for J. Plassard (Mirabaud), it is necessary to follow the advantage taken if necessary by Omicron over Delta, the variation in the incidence rate in the most affected countries, the cases of hospitalization. and death. To the question of a potential questioning of monetary policy, John Plassard answers clearly: “The answer is clearly yes. It is difficult to see how the American central bank could accelerate its tapering and raise interest rates three times in 2022 (as Goldman Sachs now thinks) if the new Omicron variant were to cause several countries to close their borders and partially shut down their economies. ”
To be followed statistically this Tuesday, the Chicago PMI at 3:45 p.m. and the very closely followed consumer confidence index (Conference Board) at 4:00 p.m. A flagship indicator with a high potential impact in an economy where, traditionally, the creation of national wealth is very dependent on the quality of domestic consumption. Yesterday, note the surprise dynamic of current home sales in the United States, jumping nearly 8% in October month on month, exploding expectations.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
Regarding the substantive technical framework, at this stage unchanged:
Since October 28 and the registration of new historic highs after those of September 07, the flagship index of technological stocks of the American stock market has systematically closed on the high points of the session, in strong volumes, which contracted only very little . The buying side, fully mobilized, does not raise any questions.
A court terme:
The entry into a phase of digestion, the structure of which will be instructive for the future, should be considered. We are still in the process of defining the framework, and the amplitude, of future consolidation. Wider consolidation is looming. A first bearish acceleration within this consolidation has been expressed.
Neutral to very slightly positive opinion on the scale of the only session to come.
In view of the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
We will take care to note that crossing 16212.00 points would rekindle the purchase tension. While a break of 15420.00 points would revive the selling pressure.
DAILY DATA CHART
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