(News Bulletin 247) – The Nasdaq Composite index, the flagship index of technology stocks on the American side, gained 2.09% on Friday to 13,047 points, ending a good week (+3.08%), which saw it regain its levels of the week of April 18. This bullish extension is due to recent reassuring and relatively accommodating remarks from J. Powell, against a backdrop of a slight deceleration in inflation, suggesting that the peak of the price spike has been reached. “However, an equity market rebound will only be sustainable once this uncertainty [face à la thématique de la hausse des taux d’intérêt] will be passed”, for Sébastien GRASSET (Auris Gestion). “Also, if the Jackson Hole symposium, which will be held from August 25 to 27, will be enlightening, it will be necessary to wait for the FOMC of September 20 and 21 to confirm the attitude, normally even firmer, expected from the FED in its fight against inflation.
For the time being, the signal sent by the data published on Friday (consumer confidence, U-Mich in preliminary data) was good. The indicator came out up at 55.1, well above expectations. This Monday, the statistical program is relatively poor. Note, however, the very sharp contraction of the manufacturing index Empire State, at -31.3. The following additional information can be read in the statement from the NY Fed: “New orders and shipments plunged, and order books thinned. Delivery times remained stable for the first time in nearly two years and inventories rose slightly Labor market indicators showed a slight increase in employment, but a decline in the average workweek Although still high, the price paid index fell and the price received index remained stable. Looking ahead, businesses do not expect much improvement in economic conditions over the next six months.”
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
At this stage of the rise in prices, since June 17, a breathing phase is envisaged up to against the 20-day moving average (in dark blue), whose crossing with its 50-day counterpart (in orange), in a significant angle, released short-term upside potential.
FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 13020.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 12140.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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