CAC 40: Change in the technical framework

(News Bulletin 247) – The CAC 40 index consolidated (-0.72% to 7,014 points) on Wednesday, the day after an increase of nearly 3%. He then relied on “reassuring” information on the degree of dangerousness of the new Omicron variant.

Anthony Fauci, the Mr. Health of the White House, relying on the information provided by South African doctors had already been relatively optimistic Monday on the degree of dangerousness of Omicron, the new variant of the coronavirus. The scientist – appointed in January 2020 to the crisis unit formed by Donald Trump against the coronavirus, and confirmed by his successor Joe Biden as his main adviser in the matter – was even more affirmative on Tuesday during an interview telephone to AFP. While it will take at least two weeks to determine this precisely, “it is almost certain” now that Omicron “is not more serious than Delta.” Better, some signs suggest “that it could even be even less severe”. Conversely, Anthony Fauci believes that the new variant is “clearly highly transmissible”, arguably more than Delta.

In terms of statistics, the operators were satisfied with the figures of new job offers (JOLTS) in the United States, whose target was beaten, on the eve of the publication of registrations for unemployment benefits.

In terms of values, Ubisoft took back 3.1% on the announcement of the launch in beta mode of Ubisoft Quartz, an NFT platform dedicated to the world of Tom Clancy’s Ghost Recon Breakpoint. Valneva gained 5.6% with an order from Bahrain to supply one million doses, the first order outside Europe for the VLA2001 vaccine under review by authorities.

On the other side of the Atlantic, transition session Wednesday, in moderate volumes. The Dow Jones climbed 0.10% to 35,754 points and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.64% to 15,786 points. The S&P 500, benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, nibbled 0.31% to 4,701 points.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to 1,1330$. A barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in financial markets, was trading around 72,90$.

To be continued on the agenda this Thursday, the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits in the United States at 2:30 p.m. The big meeting tomorrow will concern inflation with the various consumer price indices in the United States, the raw material of choice for the Fed in feeding its strategic thinking. The goal of the speakers is to refine the expected number of increases in federal rates over the year 2020, in the context of a rise in prices which has nothing more, according to J. Powell’s own admission, transitory. .

Because it is the question of the pace of monetary tightening in 2022 that will be a powerful determinant. “The question of the number of rate hikes is at the heart of the debates. [Les opérateurs ] “now foresee three rate hikes next year, while maintaining those anticipated for 2023. The possible change in the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory has triggered a sharp increase in market volatility”, for Mabrouk Chetouane, director Research and Strategy of BFT Investment Managers. However, this number of expected increases may change rapidly

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

Omicron will have had the effect of revealing the hypersensitivity of the Parisian market, in particular its Growth files (for growth, whose valuation multiples are high), mainly in luxury goods and technology. Result: the resumption of an unconditional buyer’s rally is no longer on the agenda. A continuation of broadband nervous oscillations should be considered. Band whose amplitude is now defined, between 6,650 and 7,185 points.

PREVISION

With regard to the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 7185.00 points would rekindle the purchase tension. While a break of 6656.00 points would revive the selling pressure.

Hourly data graph

Daily data graph

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