(News Bulletin 247) – The Nasdaq Composite should compose easily this Wednesday with the ADP (Automatic Data Processing) survey which has just been published. The traditional preview of the NFP report (which will be published for its part on Friday) highlights 208,000 job creations in the private sector (excluding agriculture), against a target of 200,000. US listed technology stocks, which are by nature particularly sensitive to the dynamics of the bond markets, are taking the opportunity to rise towards their 20-day moving average (in dark blue). Please note that the last time such a chart rejection occurred (September 12 after a bull run), the subsequent decline was severe.
The market will remain particularly attentive to inflation indicators and as such, the price component of the US manufacturing ISM published on Monday rather relieved investors. “The “prices paid” component fell to its lowest level since June 2020” noted Alexandre BARADEZ (IG France). ‘And the markets have been sensitive to it. […] This does not mean that equity markets will immediately rebound without reversing, as more price data will be needed to confirm a trend slowdown.
Vincent Manuel Manuel, Chief Investment Officer, Indosuez Wealth Management, nevertheless warns against the impact of the cost of real estate on the cost of living across the Atlantic. “Housing prices (30% of the basket of goods used to calculate the CPI) remain a major concern, as falling house prices affect the housing component of inflation with a 15-month lag. Also, as 30-year mortgage rates hit 6%, more Americans are turning to the rental market, pushing prices higher.”
To follow the ISM services at 4 p.m. And important appointment to check Friday, with the federal report on US employment.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
On the graphic, technical and chartist side, the 11,460 points, put under surveillance, dropped, in conditions of volatility and volumes giving credence to the bearish message. A break in the chartist neck line is fully validated, giving the signal to enter a new working base, between 10,560 and 11,460 points. Very quickly the oscillations melted in the heart of this zone. A nervous phase translated by short-range hatching is the preferred option for future sessions. Volatility can therefore increase further, with the alternation of sharply rising and sharply falling sessions. A tidy short in time, but potentially of significant magnitude.
FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 11460.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 10560.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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