(News Bulletin 247) – The Nasdaq Composite (+2.27% to 10,815 points on Monday) is expected to be in good spirits on Tuesday, against a backdrop of temporary easing in government bond yields. The Treasuries 10 years, an essential barometer and essential working basis, fell back below 3.60%. As a reminder, they surreptitiously exceeded 4% on September 28, against a background of tightening of American monetary policy. In the immediate future, the flagship index of technology stocks on the American side, particularly sensitive by nature to the dynamics of the bond markets, is taking the opportunity to gain height towards its 20-day moving average (in dark blue). Please note that the last time such a chart rejection occurred (September 12 after a bull run), the subsequent decline was severe.
Yesterday on the statistical front, the ISM manufacturing index clearly missed expectations, at 50.9 against 52.8 the previous month. “The “prices paid” component fell to its lowest level since June 2020” noted Alexandre BARADEZ (IG France). ‘And the markets have been sensitive to it. […] This does not mean that equity markets will immediately rebound without reversing, as more price data will be needed to confirm a trend slowdown.
To be continued at 4:00 p.m., the new JOLTS job offers in the United States, the first figure of a rich week in this regard, with the ADP survey tomorrow, registrations for unemployment benefits on Thursday and the federal monthly report NFP (Non Farm Payrolls) Friday. This last meeting is one of the highlights of the week’s agenda.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
On the graphic, technical and chartist side, the 11,460 points, put under surveillance, dropped, in conditions of volatility and volumes giving credence to the bearish message. A break in the chartist neck line is fully validated, giving the signal to enter a new working base, between 10,560 and 11,460 points. Very quickly the oscillations melted in the heart of this zone. A nervous phase translated by short-range hatching is the preferred option for future sessions. Volatility can therefore increase further, with the alternation of sharply rising and sharply falling sessions. A tidy short in time, but potentially of significant magnitude.
FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 11460.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 10560.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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