(News Bulletin 247) – Doji perfect, starving volumes, no statistical benchmarks, for a session shortened in the middle of Thanksgiving weekend on Friday, in other words a hit for nothing on Wall Street on the main indices. The Nasdaq Composite, the flagship index of American technology stocks, is expected to gain volatility on Monday, falling under pressure from China, where clashes between civilians and police are increasing, against a backdrop of exasperation of the populations affected by the policy. Zero-Covid.
The number of daily cases of coronavirus contamination in China continues to increase, having reached more than 40,000 on Monday, a new record, even though the vast majority of these cases remain asymptomatic. Faced with the very significant restrictions that are in place in the country, hundreds of people demonstrated in several Chinese cities to express their dissatisfaction and demand more political freedoms, which remains extremely rare in the country.
Operators are also trying to decipher the inflections of language elements contained in the latest Minutes from the Fed, suggesting that the rate hike curve could have a slower rate of rise and last longer, without giving details as to the final rate… However, the latter, potentially can vary from 5 to 7% depending on the scenarios.
As a reminder, while the slowdown in the progression of US CPIs had augured, two weeks ago, a relative easing of the Fed’s monetary policy, the signs of a continuation of the tightening have indeed, subsequently multiplied. James Bullard, chairman of the St. Louis branch of the US Federal Reserve, known for his “hawkish” positions, said rates should move above 5% to curb inflation.
On the macroeconomic side, nothing to get your teeth into on Monday; we will have to wait until tomorrow for a major benchmark: the consumer confidence index (Conference Board).
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The structure of the Tuesday 15/11 candle, hanging, flanked by two candles with red bodies located largely below Tuesday’s low points, suggests an early loss of steam in the rebound started on November 10 on the gap. The gap (another, older, bearish one dating from September 13) has lost its power of attraction for the moment, with the 11,460 points acting as resistance.
FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 11460.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 10260.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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