(News Bulletin 247) – Volatile hatching variations continue on the Euro / Dollar currency pair around $1.3, in a foreign exchange market that has a worried view, and therefore detrimental to currencies at risk, on the health situation (and especially social) in China. The restrictions are multiplying. Beijing has closed parks and museums, Shanghai is banning newcomers to the city from going to restaurants, markets or malls for the next five days. Extremely rare, a wave of protests developed this weekend in the big cities, with protesters expressing their dissatisfaction with the measures. According to AFP, this mobilization seems to be the largest since the pro-democracy riots of 1989, marked by the repression in Tiananmen Square.
In terms of statistics, not much to get your teeth into, especially since Wall Street has just finished digesting the traditional Thanksgiving turkey. To follow as a priority on the statistical agenda this Tuesday, across the Atlantic, the S&P CS index of real estate prices at 3:00 p.m. and above all the consumer confidence index (Conference Board) at 4:00 p.m..
The monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB remain more than ever at the heart of the game. “What will be most important for central bankers will remain the speed at which inflation decreases”, for Vincent Manuel, Chief Investment Officer, Indosuez WealthManagement. “The normalization of labor market conditions continues to be accompanied by a strong and widespread increase in wages. The increase in unemployment and benefit claims is still modest and is not adjusting as quickly as the real level of GDP growth would suggest so.”
“We are headed for a recession in the euro zone, perhaps less deep than anticipated and with a significant fiscal multiplier effect in the less indebted Member States. In the United States, the slowdown is starting, but inflation is the main concern”, continues Mr Manuel.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0380 about.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
Volatility remains high on the spot which traces a broad consolidation, whose structure remains to be defined, around $1.03. A continuation of these nervous oscillations is the preferred option, an unattractive graphic scenario for taking positions. We would prefer to stay out of spot immediately.
After
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity prices are positioned between the support at 1.0100 USD and the resistance at 1.0484 USD.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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