EUR/USD: Lacking American benchmarks

(News Bulletin 247) – At the top of the consolidation, the Euro/Dollar currency pair continued to illustrate the nervous waiting position, in the absence of American benchmarks since yesterday. Wall Street remained closed, as a reminder, Thursday for Thanksgiving, and will only reopen for a shortened session this Friday. Suffice to say in the absence of a very large fringe of investors. On the macroeconomic side, nothing to get your teeth into on the American side, until… Tuesday 29 and the consumer confidence index (Conference Board).

In the meantime, traders continue to digest the publication earlier in the week of the Fed Minutes, Minutes of the November 1-2 monetary policy meeting. This report was a clear opportunity to refine the neutral rate outlook and anticipate the future shape of the Fed Funds curve. While judging the need for a continuation of the fight against inflation, the members think “appropriate”, in their majority, the scenario of a slowdown in the rise of the Fed Funds. A rising curve, therefore, but a little flatter, with a point of arrival (terminal rate) which can be significant.

In terms of statistics yesterday, currency traders will have been pleasantly surprised to note the stronger than expected progression of the IFO business climate index in Germany, to 86.3. The Director of the IFO, Dr Klaus Wohlrabe, provided the following reading keys: “In the manufacturing industry, the index rose markedly, companies were much less pessimistic about the future, but in industries with high energy intensity, uncertainty has increased further. […] Expectations have risen somewhat, but remained deeply pessimistic.”

Published early this morning, German Q3 GDP came out up 0.4% quarter on quarter, beating expectations. No other major macroeconomic figures are on the agenda.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0410about..

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

Volatility remains high on the spot which traces a broad consolidation, whose structure remains to be defined, around $1.03. A continuation of these nervous oscillations is the preferred option, an unattractive graphic scenario for taking positions. We would prefer to stay out of spot immediately.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity prices are positioned between the support at 1.0175 USD and the resistance at 1.0484 USD.

CHART IN DAILY DATA

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