(News Bulletin 247) – Nervous hesitation on the foreign exchange market in the last part of a week marked by the rise in geopolitical tensions between Moscow and NATO and by growing questions about the Fed’s real intentions for the coming months. While the mood had relaxed since the publication of the latest consumer prices and producer prices, which were lower than expected, yesterday’s publication of retail sales served as a reminder that the American economic machine is working at full speed, even though that tensions in the labor market persist. In short, forex traders remain nervously waiting for clear signals, whether or not they are in favor of a flattening of the rise curve in Fed Funds.
Especially since the week was marked by comments deemed restrictive by several members of the American Federal Reserve (Fed), namely the president of the Kansas City Fed, Esther George, and that of San Francisco, Mary Daly. The first notably warned, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, of the danger of prematurely stopping increases in key rates. Mary Daly, she, estimated that a landing of the key rates of the central bank between 4.75% and 5.25% seemed “reasonable”.
Among the main lessons on the statistical front yesterday, apart from the real estate figures which came out perfectly in line with expectations, the Philly Fed (Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index) was particularly disappointed, sinking further into negative territory at -19 .4, completely missing the target. At the same time, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, remaining close to 220,000 new units, confirm the idea of persistent tensions on the labor market, tensions that generate inflation.
To follow the sale of old housing, across the Atlantic, at 4:00 p.m.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0365 about.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
After a first very significant high wick on Tuesday, then an inability to exceed the high points the next day, a new alert is being triggered. If the candle were to keep this look, namely a black body without a shadow, or even expand from below, the option of a correction towards the 20-day moving average (in dark blue) would take shape.
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity.
Our entry point is at 1.0364 USD. The price target of our bearish scenario is at 1.0101 USD. To preserve the invested capital, we advise you to position a protective stop at 1.0485 USD.
The expected return of this Forex strategy is 263 pips and the risk of loss is 121 pips.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
©2022 News Bulletin 247
I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
