(News Bulletin 247) – The Dollar will have lost ground since yesterday against the Euro, with comments deemed accommodating by J Powell. The Chairman of the Fed, presenting his economic outlook to an audience at the Brooking Institution (Washington DC), made it clear that the path to slowing the pace of rising Fed Funds was topical, after some signs of easing on the inflation front. In the wake of the speech, the probabilities, already in the majority since the Minutes, of a 50 basis point increase in the main key rate have taken off, reducing the scenario of a 75 basis point increase to almost nothing. for the next deadline.
This scenario has just been corroborated by the publication of the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) consumer price index, the Fed’s favorite measure in its inflation assessment, showing a monthly increase of 0.2% (vs. consensus at 0.3%). It is now rather serenely, on the employment side, that currency traders will turn their attention, with tomorrow’s NFP (Non Farm Payrolls) report, a traditional federal survey on the health of employment in the private sector (excluding agriculture ). A slight lull in the tensions on the job market was noted yesterday with the ADP survey, which revealed “only” 127,000 job creations in the private sector (excluding agriculture). No big surprise, however, concerning weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, which have just come out at 225,000 new units, at a level that is still just as meager.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0485 about.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
Volatility remains high on the spot which traces a broad consolidation, whose structure remains to be defined, around $1.0300. A continuation of these nervous oscillations is the preferred option, an unattractive graphic scenario for taking positions. We would prefer to stay out of spot immediately. The flag terminals are clearly marked, between 1.0240 and $1.05.
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity prices are positioned between the support at 1.0238 USD and the resistance at 1.0484 USD.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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