(News Bulletin 247) – Supported by an indicator of American consumer confidence, and by the results of barometer-valued companies (Nike, FedEx), the Parisian market followed in Wall Street’s footsteps yesterday, to finally close up very net of 2%, to 6,580 points.
THE statistical publication for Wednesday’s session was undoubtedly the American consumer confidence index (Conference Board), an indicator with a strong impact in the event of a deviation from the consensus, for an economy where structurally, most of the creation of wealth depends on domestic consumption. And there was a deviation from the consensus, since the indicator rose sharply to 108.3 points, against a target of 101.0 points.
“Consumer confidence rebounded in December, reversing back-to-back declines in October and November to reach its highest level since April 2022,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “The current situation and expectations indices have improved on more favorable consumer sentiment about the economy and employment. Inflation expectations fell in December to their lowest level since September 2021, recent declines in gas prices being a major reason.Vacation and travel plans have improved, but plans to buy expensive homes and appliances have slackened further.This shift in consumer preference big ticket items will continue into 2023, as will headwinds on inflation and interest rate hikes.”
On the value side, Interparfums gained 6.48% to 55.90 euros after announcing a licensing agreement with the Lacoste brand. But it was Valneva that took the lead in the SBF 120 with a gain of 7.2%. Figeac Aero rose 2.4% after recording strong growth and reducing its net loss in the first half of its staggered 2022-2023 financial year.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices rose in equivalent proportions, like the Dow Jones on Wednesday (+1.60% to 33,376 points) and the Nasdaq Composite (+1.54 % at 10,709 points). The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 1.49% to 3,878 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0640. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $77.60.
To follow as a priority on the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, the final data of the American GDPT4, as well as the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits across the Atlantic, at 2:30 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The three-color index traced in one session the entire amplitude of the consolidation figure above 6,550 points, the integrity of which was threatened. The close on Thursday 15/12 was very close to the lows of the session, and the power of the volumes came to lend credence to the option of a break, at the end of this threshold. First attempt on Friday, with validation by the volumes. If the sectoral federation is not yet there, the technical signal sent is clearly negative. Immediately, the pullback Wednesday must be reversed or confirmed to send any usable signal.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 6740.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 6390.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
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