(News Bulletin 247) – Once again, the Nasdaq Composite index was sensitive on Thursday to an upward movement in sovereign bond yields, in the wake of two macroeconomic publications capable of prolonging the firm tone of the Fed: the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, and above all the sharp upward revision of GDP in Q3.
The former, chronically at a level slightly above 200,000 new units each week, clearly militate for continued tensions on the job market. As for the Gross Domestic Product, it came out up by 3.2% in Q3 in final data, well above the first estimates (+2.9%), on a quarterly basis.
These are all signs of the resilience of the American economy which will comfort the Fed in pursuing its strict rate policy. The yield on the 10-year government bond (Treasuries 10 yrs) rose further to flirt with 3.70%, as the publication of the PCE index, a favorite measure, looms on Friday. of the Fed in its “appreciation” of inflation.
See you at 2:30 p.m., one hour before Wall Street opens for the publication of PCEs. Before the market went on hiatus for Christmas with a return to “hostilities” on 27/12, in the absence of a significant fringe of operators.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The flag (November 11 / December 14) is now broken, under volume conditions that make sense. The remainder of the November 10 gap is now fully filled, without isolation of sessions; the index has two short-term “falling points” (nearly 10,260 yesterday, then the symbolic threshold of 10,000 points), before considering a technical protest reaction. Price navigation is going to be very technical until the end of the year.
FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 10960.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 10260.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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