(News Bulletin 247) – Supported both by emblematic industrial files (Renault, Alstom), by banks (BNP-Paribas, Société Générale), and by luxury (Kering, LVMH), the CAC has gained height Wednesday (+2.30% to 6,776 points), in volumes fed, investors showing themselves reassured by inflation which showed some signs of easing in December in France.
The rise in prices in France thus reached 5.9% over one year in December, against 6.2% in November, according to the provisional estimate published by INSEE on Wednesday. This decline in prices in France follows the announcement on Tuesday of a more significant price slowdown than expected in December in Germany.
To be complete on the values front, TotalEnergies lost 2.34% to 57.60 euros, on the other side of the charts, undermined by the heavy decline in oil prices due to the deterioration of the health situation in China. Carmat ended up 5.7% as it announced the completion of the first implantation of its Aeson artificial heart after a suspension at the end of 2021.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices gained a few points on Wednesday, as investors struggled to take a firm position after a rather ambivalent message contained in the “Minutes” of the Fed. The Dow Jones gained 0.40% to 33,269 points on Wednesday, and the Nasdaq Composite 0.69% to 10,458 points, struggling to digest Tesla’s recent setback. The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.75% to 3,852 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0600. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around 74.00$.
To be followed as a priority on the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits and the results of the ADP survey on American employment, a preview before the expected publication of the monthly federal NFP report on private employment in December, tomorrow.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
Immediately, the pullback Wednesday 21/12 out of the 6,550 points must be reversed or definitively confirmed to send any usable signal. It has so far been confirmed twice. It is this pivot level (6,550) that will be the arbiter of this very first part of the year.
As for trend indicators, the relative trajectories of two remarkable moving averages send out a warning signal. However, their crossbreeding has not yet been finalized. The issue this Thursday, on the eve of the publication of the NFP report, is the formation or not of a candle called in harami. We will come back to its interpretation if necessary.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is trading below the resistance at 6823.00 points.
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
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