(News Bulletin 247) – The last session of the week is definitely under the sign of American employment, including the “NFP”, the traditional monthly federal report, will be unveiled at 2:30 p.m. (Paris time). The opportunity is clear to gauge the degrees of tension on the job market, tensions themselves generating inflation… However, the foretaste offered yesterday by the results of the ADP survey refreshed the atmosphere. The private human resources firm has just highlighted in its publication job creations in the private sector well above expectations (235,000, against a target of 152,000).
Benchmarks on employment which take on a particular color two days after the publication of the Minutes, the traditional written report of the debates of the last FOMC of the Fed. Document which suggests that federal rates could remain high, without specifying the terminal rate, for an extended period, to fight against “unacceptably high” inflation. It is precisely a question of employment and wages: “nominal wage growth has remained high and maintained above the rate deemed to be in line with the FOMC’s inflation target of 2%. Average hourly wage gains have increased by 5.1% in the 12 months ending in November, close to the pace recorded in the hourly compensation cost index in the private sector in the 12 months ending in September.
In terms of values, Interparfums gained 4.48% to 60.6 euros after once again raising its 2022 outlook. LDC also stood out on Thursday thanks to an increase of 3.8%. The agri-food group saw its sales increase by 17.8% in the third quarter of its financial year, boosted by price increases. Trigano lost 4.6% after a degradation from Kepler Cheuvreux who went on to keep the title. On Wednesday, the leisure vehicle specialist announced an 8.2% decline in turnover in the first quarter of its staggered 2022-2023 fiscal year.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices contracted on fear that the Fed would still be firm in tone for a long period, like the Dow Jones. (-1.02% to 32,930 points) or the Nasdaq Composite (-1.47% to 10,305 points). The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, fell 1.16% to 3,808 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0500. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $74.30.
To follow as a priority on the macroeconomic agenda this Friday, the consumer price indices in the Euro Zone at 11:00 a.m. and the monthly federal report on employment at 2:30 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
If the three-color flagship index closed lower on Thursday, and the body of the corresponding candle is contained within the body of the previous candle, the feared formation of a so-called harami was formally avoided. In the immediate future, a resistance zone close to 6,800 points is gradually asserting itself.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 6823.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a breakout of 6694.00 points would revive selling pressure.
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
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