Nasdaq Composite: Volatility will remain high

(News Bulletin 247) – The pre-opening suggests little change on the Nasdaq Composite index on Wednesday, an index which nevertheless experienced strong and contrasting emotions during the first part of the week, emotions linked in part to the health situation, and in party to a political setback for Joe Biden.

On the health front, uncertainty about the consequences of the spread of the Omicron variant have disrupted the markets, making growth files particularly hypersensitive. Calm returns immediately, and this while the President of the United States has rejected the hypothesis of new restrictions by instead giving new means to the vaccination campaign. President who suffers this week a snub on the environmental and social part of his recovery plan, cornerstone of his mandate.

reminder of the facts: a single Senator, (Democratic camp, West Virginia) Joe Manchin, blocks the vote on the BBB plan (Build Back Better), a plan of more than $ 1,700 billion which includes major social and environmental aid and investments . It is “following this announcement” that “Goldman Sachs has decided to reduce its growth prospects for 2022 in the United States to 2% against 3% for Q1, 3% against 3.5% for Q2 and 2 , 75% against 3% for Q3 “, noted Vincent Boy.

This no is “definitive”, announced Joe Manchin on television … He thus alone blocks the vote, the Democrats not reaching the majority for this one. Indeed, 50 seats out of 100 are currently occupied by Republicans in the Senate. By counting the vote of Kamala Harris (Vice-President of the United States and President of the Senate according to the Constitution), the Democrats gather 50 votes … Except that Kamala Harris has the right to vote, only to decide in case of equality!

Joe Manchin’s firm NO to Joe Biden BBB reform plan is an extremely important political setback. First of all it was indeed a strong campaign pledge from the current president. Democrats are divided on whether to use public funds in the face of abysmal US debt. Finally, it could also question the Fed’s monetary decisions in the face of declining growth, a resurgence of Covid cases and a potential stabilization of inflation “, summarizes John Plassard (Mirabaud).

This Wednesday marks the return of sharp macroeconomic benchmarks, with a battery of American publications: the final GDP data for Q3 were raised to + 2.3% quarterly, against a previous estimate of + 2.1%. It is above all thanks to household spending, which has been revised sharply upwards, that wealth creation has exceeded expectations. Precisely, concerning consumption, to carefully follow the consumer confidence index (Conference Board) at 4:00 p.m., sales of second-hand homes at 4:00 p.m. also, as well as crude stocks at 4:30 p.m.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

Regarding the substantive technical framework, at this stage unchanged:

Since October 28 and the registration of new historic highs after those of September 07, the flagship index of technological stocks of the American stock market has systematically closed on the high points of the session, in strong volumes, which contracted only very little . The buying side, fully mobilized, does not ask any questions.

A court terme:

The flagship index of technological stocks on the American stock market has just achieved a fairly clear double support on its 100-day moving average (in orange), which more than ever constitutes a technical and graphic “justice of the peace”. He certainly gave in on Monday, but without closing on the low points of the session. A rapid reinstatement would rhyme with a false exit. This is what happened on Tuesday, in equivalent volumes. We must expect high volatility, and the absence of a buying or selling federation. Once again, the look of the weekly candle will be decisive.

PREVISION

In view of the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 15792.00 points would rekindle the purchase tension. While a break of 15000.00 points would revive the selling pressure.

DAILY DATA CHART

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