Nasdaq Composite: A battery of statistical indicators on the menu

(News Bulletin 247) – The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.18% yesterday, to 15,521 points, in volumes that are starting to decline as the trading rooms empty as the holiday season approaches. The heart of the week is rich in major macroeconomic benchmarks, which so far provide some support. In particular yesterday, the final GDP data for Q3 were raised to + 2.3% quarter on quarter, against a previous estimate of + 2.1%. It is above all thanks to household spending, which has been revised sharply upwards, that wealth creation has exceeded expectations. Another important publication that has allowed Wall Street to regain altitude: the consumer confidence index (Conference Board) came out in surprise at 115.8.

“Consumer confidence improved further in December, following a very modest gain in November,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board. “The on-going component declined slightly but remains very high, suggesting that the economy has maintained momentum during the last month of 2021. Expectations for near-term growth prospects have improved, however. , setting the stage for continued growth in early 2022. The proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, major appliances, and vacation bookings in the next six months has increased. “

A battery of publications has just been unveiled, one hour before the opening of the debates on equities. Among the most important, in terms of their potential impact in the event of a deviation from consensus, we can cite:

– PCE price index (Personal consumption expenditures), a flagship measure for the Fed in the construction of its monetary strategy. Often preferred measure compared to the different CPIs (consumer price indices). In corrected data for food and energy (volatile elements), prices rose in November, at a monthly rate of 0.5%, beyond the consensus, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
– Expectations also exceeded on durable goods orders up 2.5% monthly, in particular thanks to the automotive sector.
– RAS on the side of household expenditure and income, which stands out this month perfectly in the target.
– finally, weekly registrations for unemployment benefits remain around 200,000 new units, continuing at an inevitably moderate rate from now on, their slow decline.

To be followed at 4:00 pm new home sales and the “U-Mich” index (University of Michigan) in revised data, of household confidence.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

Regarding the substantive technical framework, at this stage unchanged:

Since October 28 and the registration of new historic highs after those of September 07, the flagship index of technological stocks of the American stock market has systematically closed on the high points of the session, in strong volumes, which contracted only very little . The buying side, fully mobilized, does not ask any questions.

A court terme:

The flagship index of technological stocks on the American stock market has just achieved a fairly clear double support on its 100-day moving average (in orange), which more than ever constitutes a technical and graphic “justice of the peace”. He certainly gave in on Monday, but without closing on the low points of the session. A rapid reinstatement would rhyme with a false exit. This is what happened on Tuesday, in equivalent volumes. We must expect high volatility, and the absence of a buying or selling federation. Once again, the look of the weekly candle will be decisive.

PREVISION

In view of the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 15792.00 points would rekindle the purchase tension. While a break of 15000.00 points would revive the selling pressure.

DAILY DATA CHART

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