(News Bulletin 247) – The single currency was attempting an incursion this morning above $1.09, supported by a statement deemed “hawkish” (restrictive, bellicose) from one of the members of the European Central Bank (ECB). Klaas Knot, Governor of the Bank of the Netherlands and therefore de facto member of the Governing Council of the ECB, told the Batavian press on Saturday that increases of 50 basis points (0.50 percentage points ) of the key rates of the euro zone central bank at its next two meetings, in February and March. Then “expect that we will not be finished by then and that other measures will follow in May and June”, he added according to comments relayed by the Reuters agency.
To be monitored on the statistical side this afternoon at 4:00 p.m., the consumer confidence index in the Euro Zone, expected at -20, after a previous month at -22 (EuroStat figures). Also to follow, the index of leading indicators (Conference Board) also at 4:00 p.m., before a speech by Mrs. Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, during an event organized by the German Stock Exchange in Eschborn. In terms of statistics, on Friday, the producer price indices in Germany slowed less sharply than expected for the month of December, and sales of existing homes exceeded the 4 million mark across the Atlantic last month.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0875 around.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
In the absence of validation of a configuration in ascending method, a continuation of neutral oscillations, in thin range near the moving average to 20 days (in dark blue) is expected. The very structure of the ongoing consolidation nevertheless testifies to the advantage taken by the Euro at the start of 2023.
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity prices are positioned between the support at 1.0645 USD and the resistance at 1.1190 USD.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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