(News Bulletin 247) – The Nasdaq Composite index managed to cross, on Friday, the upper limit of a wide range, at 11,450 points, gaining 0.95% to 11,621 points, despite the disappointment of Intel (- 6.41%) which dragged down the entire chip sector (equipment manufacturers, manufacturers, specialists). One profit warning, against a backdrop of fears of a collapse in the PC market, which shook a whole section of the rating. At the same time, operators are already looking ahead to the outcome of the first FOMC of the year on Wednesday.
For Thomas Costerg, US economist at Pictet Wealth Management, the Fed will remain very sensitive to labor market data, which still shows some tension. The Fed is particularly watching the JOLTS survey of job vacancies.” Survey which will be published on Wednesday, just like the survey of the private firm ADP, two days before the publication of the monthly federal report NFP (Non Farm Payrolls), which “The Fed fears persistent wage pressures pushing up inflation, particularly in services, in 2023.”
“[Elle] could continue to raise rates, in steps of 25bp, at the next meetings until a peak of 5.25% next May, in line with the projections given in December.”, continued Mr Costberg.
It is the degree of firmness of tone on the part of J Powell that will be measured. “Jerome Powell will certainly strike a tough tone, but that is unlikely to be enough to quell the euphoria in the markets. from the decline in the Fed’s balance sheet”, suggests Vincent Boy, market analyst IG France.
No figure of major importance is on the agenda this Monday. To be monitored tomorrow the consumer confidence index (Conference Board), the Chicago PMI index as well as several barometer indicators of the health of the real estate market.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
A major technical and graphic fact, the flagship index of technology stocks on the American quotation is in the process of crossing (still to be formally confirmed) the upper limit of a wide range (range of expression of quotations between 10,250 and 11,450 The message sent is positive provided that rapid reintegration, in closing data, does not occur.
FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 11750.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 10250.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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