Markets

Nasdaq Composite: Confrontation on technical zone before a decisive FOMC

by

(News Bulletin 247) – The Nasdaq Composite index fell to the top of the range yesterday (-1.96% to 11,393 points), as the outcome of the Fed’s first monetary policy meeting approaches tomorrow . “The market thinks that the Fed will make a final rate hike of 25 basis points in March,” notes Alexandre Baradez (IG France). . To sum up, the markets seem convinced that the Fed rate hike cycle will be over by the end of the first quarter and that the terminal rate will therefore not exceed 5% (because two more rate hikes mean a final rate range of 4.75-5.00%). Investors are therefore awaiting a rather “dovish” decision from the Fed with a press conference by Jerome Powell giving the first signs of the end of the rate hike cycle.

But beware of employment, whose signs of chronic tension will not fail, if necessary, to alert the Fed over the whole of the first quarter. Precisely on employment, operators will have valuable benchmarks this week (new JOLTS offers, ADP survey, weekly jobless claims and the high point on Friday, the federal report on private employment). Any sign of persistent and chronic tension in employment will be grounds for anticipating continued tension in the monetary cord. And can, if necessary, push back the pivot date estimates.

To be followed on the statistical side today, the S&P / CS index of real estate prices at 3:00 p.m., the Chicago PMI index at 3:45 p.m., and the consumer confidence index (Conference Board) at 4:00 p.m.

The Fed’s verdict is expected tomorrow at 8:00 p.m. (Paris time).

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

A major technical and graphic fact, the flagship index of technology stocks on the American quotation is in the process of crossing (still to be formally confirmed) the upper limit of a wide range (range of expression of quotations between 10,250 and 11,450 points). The message sent is positive provided that rapid reintegration, in closing data, does not occur. This reinstatement is almost effective, the test is still in progress.

FORECAST

In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.

We will take care to note that a crossing of 11450.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 10250.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.

CHART IN DAILY DATA

©2023 News Bulletin 247

You May Also Like

Recommended for you