(News Bulletin 247) – After experiencing an acceleration during the intervention of J Powell yesterday, during an event organized by the Economic Club of Washington, DC, the 10-year Treasuries, that is to say by metonymy the Yields on 10-year US government bonds consolidated this morning, as did the Euro, which halted its early hemorrhage against the Dollar in close proximity to the 50-day moving average (in orange).
There was a clear opportunity to provide clarification after the lukewarm FOMC last week. The boss of the Fed will not have finally hardened the tone, in spite of very important tensions on employment. The Chairman of the Fed referred to the 517,000 job creations in the private sector in January, while pointing out the lack of excitement on the wage front.
“[Les banques centrales] still do not plan to lower their rates during the year, which the markets do not want to admit”, according to the reading of Vincent Guenzi, strategist of Cholet Dupont. “Central bankers fear that after a period of decline, the inflation is stabilizing at too high a level, hence their caution as the markets see the risks of a pronounced slowdown in growth.”
To follow as a priority on the macroeconomic agenda this Wednesday across the Atlantic: wholesale stocks at 4:00 p.m. and oil stocks at 4:30 p.m.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0750 approximately.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The bullish bias is not threatened at this stage. Simply, the spot retreats, in the direction of its long moving average, without any tangible sign of a buying entry point. Neutral opinion retained. Only a sharp break in the 50-day moving average, with confirmation at the end of the week, would send a consistent negative message.
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity prices are positioned between the support at 1.0645 USD and the resistance at 1.1045 USD.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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