(News Bulletin 247) – The Euro timidly regained support on its 50-day moving average (in orange), whose support role has been tested since the beginning of the week, against a backdrop of intense questioning about the Fed’s intentions after the last weekend’s release of an NFP jobs report that highlighted powerful tensions on the jobs front. As a reminder, private employment created more than 500,000 jobs in January, against a backdrop of shrinking available labor – unemployment is at a low point at 3.4% of the active population.
“And while we expected a more incisive Fed chairman last night in front of the Economic Club of Washington after the employment figures on Friday, he once again relatively reassured market participants by indicating that the Fed wanted to be transparent in order “not to surprise the markets”. deciphers Alexandre Baradez (IG France). “And the markets seem to have once again stopped at the softer parts of the speech when both speeches (last Wednesday and last night) were pretty hawkish in overall tenor.”
In the immediate future, the atmosphere is serene, as shown by the popular decline of 10-year-old Trasuries, close to 1.59%.
To follow as a priority on the macroeconomic agenda this Thursday, the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits in the United States at 2:30 p.m., a new measure of the tensions on the job market across the Atlantic, which remains watched like milk on the fire. by the Fed because of its impact on wage growth. However, the momentum for the increase in average hourly wages in the private sector did not deviate from expectations last Friday, causing a feeling of relief.
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0770 approximately.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The bullish bias is not threatened at this stage. Simply, the spot retreats, towards its long moving average, without any tangible sign of a buying entry point. Neutral opinion retained. Only a sharp break in the 50-day moving average, with confirmation at the end of the week, would send a consistent negative message. This major technical test is underway.
MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).
We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity prices are positioned between the support at 1.0645 USD and the resistance at 1.1045 USD.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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