by Claude Chendjou

PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected on a cautious note at the opening on Thursday, as investors continue to digest the latest statements on rates from the Chairman of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell, while being in waiting for the figures of the monthly report on employment in the United States due Friday.

Index futures suggest a decline of 0.1% for the Dax in Frankfurt, 0.13% for the FTSE 100 in London and 0.09% for the EuroStoxx 50. As for the CAC 40 in Paris, it could decline by 0.12% according to the first indications available.

The session should again be dominated by questions about the evolution of interest rates in the wake of the decision by the Bank of Canada to pause its monetary tightening, the first of the major central banks to opt for such a policy, while in the United States, Jerome Powell, assured Wednesday that no decision had yet been made on the rates expected this month.

The Fed’s monetary policy meeting is scheduled for March 21 and 22, that of the European Central Bank (ECB) on March 16 and that of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Friday.

In the immediate future, investors are mainly looking at the monthly employment report in the United States due on Friday, Jerome Powell having reaffirmed that the decisions of the Fed will be dependent on economic data while the ADP survey showed Wednesday an acceleration of job creations in February and another separate (“Jolts”) from the Labor Department a less marked decrease in job offers in January.

In this respect, Thursday’s publication of the weekly jobless claims in the United States will be particularly interesting to observe, as the markets now assess with a probability of 78.6% a 50 basis point hike in the Fed’s rates this month, down from around 30% at the start of the week, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Barometer.

VALUES TO FOLLOW IN EUROPE:

In terms of corporate results, Vivendi, Dassault Aviation, Hugo Boss, Aviva and even Leonardo should lead the discussions.

AT WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange ended in disarray on Wednesday after Jerome Powell’s rehearing before the US Congress and economic data published ahead of reports on the labor market and inflation.

The Dow Jones index fell 0.18%, or 58.06 points, to 32,798.40 points.

The broader S&P-500 gained 5.64 points, or 0.14%, to 3,992.01 points.

The Nasdaq Composite advanced for its part by 45.67 points (0.40%) to 11,576.00 points.

On the value side, Tesla fell 3% after the American highway safety authority announced the opening of a preliminary investigation into 120,000 Model Ys from 2023 for a possible defect in the power steering.

IN ASIA

On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index ended with a gain of 0.63% to 28,623.15 points and the broader Topix rose 0.97% to 2,071.09 points on the eve of the meeting. the BoJ.

Japan’s economy grew at a slightly slower-than-estimated pace in the fourth quarter, 0.1% year on year, according to revised data released Thursday.

In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite lost 0.02% and the CSI 300 lost 0.07%.

As for Chinese economic statistics, the rise in the consumer price index (CPI) slowed to 1.0% year on year last month, after rising 2.1% in January and a consensus of 1.9. %, while that of producer prices (PPI) fell by 1.4% in February, after a decline of 0.8% the previous month and a consensus of -1.3%.

CHANGES

The dollar (-0.04%) remains close to a three-week high on Thursday against a basket of benchmark currencies.

The Japanese currency is trading at 136.74 yen to the dollar after the revised fourth quarter GDP figures.

The euro is trading at 1.0547 dollars (+0.03%).

The Canadian dollar fell 0.01% to 1.3803 US dollar in reaction to the status quo decided by the Bank of Canada.

RATE

The yield on two-year US Treasuries is holding near its 15-year peak, at 5.0579%, and the ten-year one is up more than two basis points, at 3.99%. The gap between these two maturities widened to -108 points, the sharpest inversion since 1981, which is generally interpreted as a sign of a recession in the near future.

OIL

The oil market is stable, investors are divided after the latest economic statistics: Brent gleans 0.04% to $ 82.69 a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) 0.03% to 76.68 dollars.

(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Bertrand Boucey)

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