CAC 40: Minute (s), butterfly!

(News Bulletin 247) – Thursday’s session should start in red territory, after the woes of Wall Street yesterday. It is in particular the technological growth files, and therefore mechanically the Nasdaq, which suffered (-3.34% to 15,100 for the Composite) after the publication of the Fed Minutes which confirmed the desire for firmness in terms of Monetary Policy. The minutes of the FOMC of December 14 and 15 revealed the content of the debates between its members, and it is clear that inflation, logistical bottlenecks and tensions in the labor market were subjects of concern. major tension. And the tense discussions around the schedule for reducing the balance sheet have caused a heating of the Treasuries at 10 years old, currently in the immediate vicinity of 1.73.

IN the statistical chapter yesterday, RAS concerning the final data of the PMI services (IHS Markit) in the Euro Zone, in final data for December, at 53.1, without much difference compared to the previous estimate. The operators also took note of the results of the ADP (Automatic Data Processing) survey on employment. According to the private human resources firm, the US economy created 807,000 jobs in the private sector (excluding agriculture) in December, largely beating the target, the highest since May. Verdict Friday with content from NFP (Non Farm Payrolls), the federal monthly private employment report.

Side values, the files most sensitive to the economic recovery which pulled the rise of the CAC 40, Renault (+ 5.3%) in the lead on the background of signals evoking a gradual absorption of the shortage of semiconductors. In the automotive sector, Stellantis climbed 3.9% after the announcement of a series of agreements with Amazon. Between the two, Carrefour (+ 5.1%) climbed to the second step of the podium of the day, while Bloomberg revived speculation on a merger with Auchan. Kering (+ 3%), Alstom and Worldline (+ 2.9% each) as well as Unibail-RW (+ 2.6%) and ArcelorMittal (+ 2.3%) were also highly sought after.

On the other side of the Atlantic, bright red to be noted on all the flagship indices of the rating on Wednesday. The Dow Jones lost 1.07% to 36,407 points, with banks and industrials keeping their heads above water and the Nasdaq Composite stumbling 3.34% to 15,100 points. The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, lost 1.94% to 4,700 points. To report thick volumes on all the indices.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to 1,1290$. A barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in financial markets, was trading around 77,20$.

To be continued on the agenda this Thursday, to follow as a priority the producer price index in the Euro Zone at 11:00 a.m., and for the United States, the weekly registrations for unemployment benefits at 2:30 p.m., the trade balance at 2:30 p.m. and the PMI services (ISM) at 4:00 p.m.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

If the underlying trend is not threatened at this stage, the losses on Wall Street yesterday should irreparably cause profit-taking in Paris, profit-taking the magnitude of which must be considered in the light of initial progress, files by files. We still remain well above a bullish slant and the 100-day moving average (in orange).

PREVISION

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index quotes below the resistance at 7500.00 points.

Hourly data graph

Daily data graph

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