by Laetitia Volga

PARIS (Reuters) – Wall Street is expected to break even and European stock markets rose mid-session on Thursday in a climate of expectation on the eve of major American statistics and the long Easter weekend. Futures on New York indices signal an opening up 0.05% for the Dow Jones, 0.01% for the Standard & Poor’s-500 and down 0.2% for the Nasdaq. A clearer trend could emerge with the publication at 12:30 GMT of the weekly unemployment claims figure. In Paris, the CAC 40 gained 0.28% to 7,336.6 around 11:20 GMT. In Frankfurt, the Dax takes 0.33% and in London, the FTSE gains 0.73%.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 0.51%, the Eurozone EuroStoxx 50 0.23% and the Stoxx 600 0.51%.

It is heading for an increase of 0.25% over the week shortened by the Good Friday holiday. US markets will reopen on Monday and those in Europe on Tuesday.

Investors will therefore have a time lag on Friday’s publication of the monthly report on employment in the United States, which could reinforce growing concerns about the slowing economy.

Several activity and labor market indicators suggest that the Federal Reserve’s restrictive policy is really starting to dampen demand, which is fueling fears of a possible recession in the world’s largest economy but also hopes for a break. next in interest rate hikes.

According to the FedWatch Barometer, traders see a 56% chance the Fed will keep the fed funds rate target between 4.75% and 5% and a majority (45%) believe the bank will lower this range in July.

As for the European Central Bank, its chief economist suggested that a rate hike was likely in May if the economy develops as expected.

VALUES IN EUROPE

The real estate sector posted the best performance of the day for the moment with an increase of 2.04%. Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield leads the CAC 40 (+2.48%). As for the SBF 120, Accor stands out with a jump of 5.14% thanks to Stifel’s move from “hold” to “buy”.

Shell gained 1.80% as the energy giant forecast higher liquefied natural gas production in the first quarter.

RATES/EXCHANGES

Benchmark government bond yields in Europe are falling after a series of US data boosted the prospect of a Fed ‘pivot’.

That of the ten-year German Bund lost nearly three basis points to 2.153% and its French equivalent, at 2.668%, posted a decline of 2.4 points.

The yield on Treasuries of the same maturity is stabilizing around 3.285% after having previously been close to a low since September. On the foreign exchange market, the “dollar index”, which measures the evolution of the greenback against a reference basket, is little changed, as is the euro at 1.0907.

INDICATORS

German industrial production rose much more than expected in February, thanks in part to the automotive sector, which could help Germany avoid a recession in the first quarter.

“The data series for February shows a strong comeback of German industry (…) German industry is more resilient than feared,” said Carsten Brzeski at ING.

OIL

The oil market is erasing its losses from the morning and is heading for an increase of more than 6% for the whole week thanks to the unexpected decision of OPEC+ to reduce its supply.

Brent gained 0.02% to 85.01 dollars a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) lost 0.06% to 80.56 dollars.

(Laetitia Volga, editing by Kate Entringer)

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