by Claude Chendjou

PARIS (Reuters) – Major European stocks are expected to rise on Tuesday after the long Easter weekend, with investors cautiously optimistic about a lull in central bank interest rate hikes despite a jobs report in the United States, which showed job creations at a steady pace in March.

According to the first indications available, the CAC 40 should gain 0.61% at the opening on Tuesday after four days of closing on the Paris Stock Exchange. The Dax in Frankfurt is expected up 0.64% and the FTSE 100 in London up 0.64%. The EuroStoxx 50 index could take 0.54%.

On Friday, with most markets closed, the US Department of Labor said the US economy added 236,000 non-farm payrolls last month, while the February figure was revised up to 326,000 from 311,000 reported. initially. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.6% the previous month.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Barometer, investors expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise rates another 25 basis points after its next monetary policy meeting on May 2-3.

For Gary Ng, economist at Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank, this increase is however lower than what had previously been anticipated by the market.

“I think investors are more optimistic about the end of the rate cycle…we’re already at the top (of rates), that’s really the main driver of this oscillation that we’re seeing right now,” did he declare.

The publication of consumer and producer prices in the United States, Wednesday and Thursday, will provide new elements on the evolution of inflation.

As for macroeconomic statistics in Europe, retail sales in the euro zone, scheduled for Tuesday at 09:00 GMT, are expected according to the Reuters consensus to be down 0.8% over one month and down 3.5% over one year.

In addition to questions about monetary policy, there are those about the first financial results of companies expected this week, particularly in the luxury sector where LVMH opens the ball on Wednesday, followed by Hermès on Thursday, while the major American banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup or Wells Fargo are expected on Friday.

VALUES TO FOLLOW IN EUROPE:

The semiconductor sector in Europe will be one to watch, with Samsung announcing on Friday evening that it expects a 96% drop in operating profit over the January-March period.

AT WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange ended in disarray on Monday, as investors digested the US jobs report released on Friday and favored caution at the start of a week marked by inflation data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.30%, or 101.23 points, to 33,586.52 points.

The broader S&P-500 gained 4.09 points, or 0.10%, to 4,109.11 points.

The Nasdaq Composite fell for its part by 3.60 points (0.03%) to 12,084.36 points.

On the stock side, semiconductor makers Micron Technology and Western Digital rose 8.0% and 8.2% after Samsung Electronics announced it would scale back chip production.

IN ASIA

On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index advanced 1.25% to 27,979.66 points and the Topix, larger, took 0.75% to 1,991.41 points as the close approached.

In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite, on the other hand, lost 0.45% and the CSI 300 lost 0.43%.

Consumer prices in China rose 0.7% in March against an expected 1.0% increase, while producer prices fell 2.5%, in line with expectations.

South Korea’s central bank on Tuesday maintained its key rate at 3.5% after the status quo observed in February. According to Gary Ng, the preservation of economic growth in Asian countries outweighs the control of inflation compared to the situation in the United States and Europe.

The MSCI index comprising stocks from Asia and the Pacific (excluding Japan) rose by 0.6%.

CHANGES

The dollar paused on Tuesday (-0.15%) after its recent rise against a basket of benchmark currencies.

The euro took advantage of this to gain 0.26% and climb to 1.0887 dollars after falling 0.34% on Monday.

Bitcoin is trading above $30,000 at a new 10-month high amid risk-taking.

RATE

Ten-year and two-year US Treasury bond yields were broadly stable at 3.4074% and 3.9932%, respectively.

OIL

Oil prices are supported by the expected drop in crude inventories in the United States last week: Brent gained 0.74% to $84.80 a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) 0.83 % at $80.40.

(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Bertrand Boucey)

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