BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s exports unexpectedly rebounded in March but the improvement partly reflects a catch-up in unfulfilled orders after the COVID-19-related disruptions last year, analysts warn.

Exports climbed 14.8% year on year last month, after falling 6.8% in January-February, data released by China Customs showed on Thursday, and while the Reuters consensus stood at -7, 0%.

Imports fell in March by 1.4% on an annual basis, a figure however higher than the expectations of analysts who anticipated a drop of 5.0% after -10.2% in January-February.

“The wave of the COVID outbreak in December and January likely depleted factory inventories. Now that factories are running at full capacity, they have caught up with cumulative orders from the past,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset. Management.

“Sustained strong export growth is unlikely given the weak global macroeconomic outlook,” he added.

Lv Daliang, spokesman for the General Administration of Customs, attributed the surge in exports to strong demand for electric vehicles, photovoltaic equipment and lithium batteries.

“Sluggish external demand and geopolitical factors will pose greater challenges to China’s trade development,” he warned, however.

Imports fell less than expected due to purchases of agricultural products, particularly soybeans.

China’s strong performance contrasts with that of other Asian exporters, such as South Korea and Vietnam, which both saw their exports decline in the first months of the year.

“We are not convinced that this rebound will be sustainable given the still gloomy outlook for foreign demand,” however, observe analysts at Capital Economics in a note.

(Report Joe Cash and Ellen Zhang; Camille Raynaud and Kate Entringer, edited by Jean-Stéphane Brosse)

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