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Backed by very clear confirmation of a slowdown in inflation on the other side of the Atlantic (CPI, PPI), the CAC 40 will have spent a week (shortened due to Easter Monday) in excellent spirits, managing to gain 2.66% to 7,519 points, on historic highs, at the dawn of a new season of corporate results.
“Risky assets are regaining favor with investors who are counting on an imminent end to monetary tightening,” summarizes Jeanne Asseraf-Bitton, Head of Research and Strategy at BFT IM, who argues: “The rise in consumer prices is slowing to 5 March below core inflation, which remains high at 5.6%. bodes well. The Fed minutes show a dovish bias in rates, linked to bank risk, but no change in the pace of its balance sheet reduction.”
On the values side, the banks pulled the CAC 40 upwards, probably driven by the good results of their counterparts across the Atlantic. Societe Generale took 3.63% to 22.40 euros, BNP Paribas 3.22% to 59.39 euros and Crédit Agricole SA 2.3%. Hermes won 1.5% after publishing sales up nearly 24% year on year for the first quarter, on a like-for-like basis, following in the footsteps of LVMH, which had already unveiled booming activity the day before. Against the current, Alstom fell by 3%, the market worrying about the departure of its financial director, Laurent Martinez, who will join Orange on September 1st.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices pressed the pause button on Friday, like the Dow Jones (-0.42% to 33,886 points) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.35 % at 12,123 points). The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, fell 0.21% to 4,137 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0890. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $79.90.
To be followed as a priority on the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, the Empire State manufacturing index (from the NY Fed) at 2:30 p.m. as well as a speech by Mrs. Lagarde, President of the ECB, at 5:00 p.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
After a “crazy” week, marked by the plotting of a long white weekly candle, of which a good part of the body is made up of successive historical highs, the time has come for the consolidation of the advance, even if the bullish message The bottom line remains intact, as shown by the imminent reconquest of the 50-day moving average (in orange) by its 20-day counterpart (in dark blue). Just like the pursuit gaps visible in the hourly chart.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 7740.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 7400.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
The News Bulletin 247 board
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
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