(News Bulletin 247) – The Paris Stock Exchange is expected without much change on Friday at the opening of a session which will be mainly dominated by the publication of the PMI indices on activity in the private sector in the euro zone.

Around 8:15 a.m., the ‘futures’ contract on the CAC 40 index – due April – advanced by 3.5 points to 7543.5 points, suggesting a symbolic increase at the start of the session.

Yesterday, the Paris market had concluded the day with an anecdotal decline of 0.1% to 7538 points, torn between the good performance of luxury stocks and the heavy decline in the automotive sector.

As the CAC emerges from a vigorous ‘rally’, which allowed it to climb almost 6% over the past month, investors seem to be beginning to yearn for a break.

On Wall Street, the American places also ended in the red yesterday under the influence of economic indicators and corporate results having reinforced the scenario of a coming recession.

While analysts see few negative technical signals in the short term, the markets seem to be looking for elements that can take them to a new level.

The trend could change in the morning with the publication of the results of the monthly surveys of purchasing managers (PMI) in the private sector in the European economies in April.

After hitting a low of 47.3 last October, the Eurozone ‘composite’ PMI has risen for five consecutive months to stand at 53.7 in March, implying growth of around 0 .5% in the first quarter.

While the ebbing of energy price tensions is a cause for relief, there is still a big disparity between the dynamism of the services sector and the sluggishness in the manufacturing industry.

For economists at Oddo BHF, this dichotomy calls for some caution.

‘The panorama is not completely clear of downside risks’, estimates the private bank in a recent publication.

‘For a few weeks in fact, banking stress has risen, which presages a further tightening of credit conditions’, add its analysts.

‘Monetary policy is restrictive, with no hope of easing in the short term,’ recalls Oddo.

Beyond macroeconomic concerns, the rating remains driven by numerous publications of company results.

The German software publisher SAP then the American giant of consumer products must, among other things, reveal their accounts during the day.

On the bond market, the yield of 10-year Treasuries remains weakened by the lower appetite for risk shown by investors, who favor safe-haven assets.

In Europe, the ten-year German Bund yield, a benchmark for the region, fell to around 2.44%, in the wake of statistics showing a marked decline in inflation across the Rhine.

Ahead of the publication of the PMI indices, the euro stabilized around $1.0965 while oil prices continued to fall.

The barrel of Brent from the North Sea yielded 0.2% to return below the threshold of 81 dollars and that of American light crude fell 2.4% to 77.3 dollars.

Note that the session could prove to be a little more volatile than usual due to the day of the ‘three witches’, marked by the expiry of futures contracts and the arrival at expiry of options.

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