(News Bulletin 247) – This article, in free access, is produced by the stock market analysis and strategy research team of News Bulletin 247. To not miss any opportunity, consult all the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our Privileges area.
Friday, for the fourth session in a row, the CAC 40 evolved within very narrow margins, in congestion around 7,200 points, in nervous expectation of major monetary meetings. It is this week that the initiatives will be able to settle, as the Fed completes a new meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday, and the ECB completes its Board of Governors on Thursday.
Important point to remember: the probabilities of attending a status quo on the Fed Funds have relatively rebalanced in recent days in favor of a 25bp hike, in particular due to persistent inflation, fueled by chronic tensions in the labor market. However, the status quo scenario still holds true.
“Certainly, elements plead for a break in June” notes, William Gerlach, Regional Director France and United Kingdom at iBanFirst. “Major indicators and proxy data (notably the Chicago PMI manufacturing index) confirm that the risk of recession is increasing significantly. But on the other side of the spectrum, the latest employment figures indicate that tightening may be needed to ensure that inflationary pressures do not reappear.”
The last ISM services, which fell towards 50 points, also sounded the alarm.
The consumer price indices in the United States will be published next week, on the eve of the verdict on the Fed Funds.
Under these conditions, Mr. Gerlach favors “the following scenario: an increase [des Fed Funds] in June and July before taking a break. On the ECB side, “while inflation remains the main concern, the ECB has every reason to raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week.”
In terms of statistics, Italian industrial production fell by almost 2% month on month in April, completely missing expectations (+0.2%).
In terms of values, Edenred ended up 0.66% at 62.48 euros when Vivendi fell 2.4%. As announced by Euronext, the first will take the place of the second on June 19 within the CAC 40, which entails adjustments within the index funds which replicate the composition of the CAC 40. Societe Generale has increased by 2%. , benefiting from a note from Jefferies which reaffirmed its opinion on the purchase and raised its target to 43 euros. Finally, Dassault Systèmes returned 2.5% after announcing that it was targeting a doubling of its net earnings per share by 2028 as well as the appointment of Pascal Daloz as CEO.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices managed to grab a few points symbolically on Friday at the close, like the Dow Jones (+0.13% to 33,876 points) or the Nasdaq Composite (+ 0.16% at 13,259 points). The S&P500, the reference barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, eroded 0.11% to 4,298 points.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0750. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $70.40.
On the macroeconomic agenda on Monday, few things to put in their mouths. To follow the federal budget balance at 8:00 p.m. The agenda becomes denser tomorrow, with the high point of the consumer price indices in the United States.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
Around 7,200 points, the ACC is, in timid volumes, in a period of congestion, auguring a release of energy, that one, the other or both of the main monetary policy meetings of the week.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 7400.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 7088.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
The News Bulletin 247 board
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
function creatOutbrainJs() {
const creatJs = document.createElement(“script”);
creatJs.defer = true;
creatJs.src = “https://widgets.outbrain.com/outbrain.js”;
return document.body.appendChild(creatJs);
}
window.didomiOnReady = window.didomiOnReady || [];
window.didomiOnReady.push(function(Didomi) {
console.log(“Didomi ready “);
Didomi.getObservableOnUserConsentStatusForVendor(164)
.filter(function (status) { return status !== undefined })
.subscribe(function(consentStatus) {
if (consentStatus === false || consentStatus === true) {
console.log(“Didomi consent -> exécution du script outbrain “, consentStatus);
creatOutbrainJs()
}
});
});
I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
