(News Bulletin 247) – Oddo BHF maintains its ‘underperformance’ rating on the Casino share, with a price target significantly reduced from 6.4 euros to 1 euro, anticipating ‘a calamitous year 2023… and a restructuring of great magnitude’.
The analyst reports that the figures presented yesterday by Casino in its slideshow reflect the effect of a marked drop in prices since the beginning of March, without offsetting it by such a marked increase in attendance and purchases of clients.
The group says it expects positive sales growth in Q4 2023 for supermarkets and by H1 2024 for hypermarkets.
In this context, 2023 EBITDA after rent is expected at 439 ME (Oddo BHF was counting on 775 ME in its model) and 2024 EBITDA after rent is expected at 656 ME.
‘All the terms of the restructuring have not been decided, but whatever the scenario, the central hypothesis is that of a massive dilution of the current shareholders. We are therefore adjusting our OC to 1.0 E vs 6.4 E which constitutes a best-case scenario pending more visibility on the parameters of the restructuring’, concludes the broker.
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