(News Bulletin 247) – The Euro consolidated, without correction, after a trying week for the greenback: the very marked easing on the federal sovereign bond markets caused a very significant drop in the Dollar, the flagship currency pair returning to levels which had not been relevant since February 2022.

As a reminder, US CPIs for June showed last week, much to traders’ relief, a moderate but noticeable cooling in price dynamics, which they can cross-reference with the findings of the latest jobs report, showing also a fall, albeit slow, of the temperature. In detail, prices, food and energy included, rose in June at an annualized rate of 3.0%, whereas the consensus, already optimistic, foreshadowed an increase of 3.1%. Excluding food and energy, elements considered volatile, the monthly rise in prices is 0.2%, also below the consensus. The PPIs published in the process (producer price indices) corroborated this trend towards a cooling of the economic machine.

Is the Fed about to win its bet? In any case, it is achieving tangible results, its challenge remaining enormous: bringing the price trajectory back to +2% without a hard landing in activity. In any case, the course of a firm monetary policy will be maintained in the coming months and there is no question of talking about a pivot. The scenario of a 25 basis point rise in Fed Funds at the end of the month is almost complete.

In the immediate future, the very beginning of the week is being thwarted by Chinese indicators that are not very pleasant, weighing on risk appetite. Retail sales, in particular, for the month of June missed expectations, as did growth in Q2, at +6.3% compared to Q2 last year, compared to consensus at +7.1% .

“Although this could lead to new support from the government, the evolution of the Yuan and the situation on the level of indebtedness could reduce the room for maneuver of the party”, comments Vincent Boy, market analyst IG France .

On Friday, the monthly trade balance deficit came out almost at equilibrium in the Euro Zone, beating expectations. Furthermore, the publication of the US consumer confidence index as defined by the University of Michigan, expected to rise to 65.5 in preliminary data, was rather pleasantly surprised, coming out at 72.6.

“Beyond China, investors will be watching closely for the second quarter earnings season, so they can justify the meteoric acceleration in financial markets since the beginning of the year. US banks have given very good results last week to start this season and the markets are expecting many companies, especially technology companies, over the next two weeks,” continues M Boy.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.1240 approximately.


The level at $1.10, a key level, is fully qualified as support, given the volatility when it is crossed. It shattered. We expect engagement in an episode of consolidation of this very recent advance.


In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).

We will keep this neutral opinion as long as the Euro Dollar (EURUSD) parity prices are positioned between the support at 1.1100 USD and the resistance at 1.1300 USD.

The News Bulletin 247 board

Objective :
1.1300 / 1.1460
1.1100 / 1.1000 / 1.0854