(News Bulletin 247) – The Paris Stock Exchange is expected to be virtually unchanged on Tuesday morning, with investors keeping their eyes on corporate results more than ever.

Around 8:15 a.m., the ‘future’ contract on the CAC 40 – delivery at the end of July – fell by a small point to 7295 points, announcing an opening at or near equilibrium.

The Parisian index had ended the first session of the week on a decline of 1.1%, but in a market without consistency or volatility in the absence of leading catalysts.

Now back below 7300 points, the CAC marks a small halt in its upward movement which had enabled it to begin a rebound of around 5% since July 7, a configuration which seems to confirm the absence of ‘characterized buying interest.

Investors are betting heavily on the series of company results expected in the coming days in order to be able to justify the meteoric acceleration of stock market indices since the start of the year.

Knowing that this week should truly launch the earnings season, the markets could be relatively hesitant until they manage to get a general idea of ​​the trend for the second quarter.

Even if they are not the only ones to publish their results today, the big American banks will once again take center stage with the announcement of their quarterly accounts in a rather buoyant context.

The first American banks to have published their results had also delivered solid performances at the end of last week.

Overall, earnings for the U.S. financial sector are forecast up 7.8% according to FactSet, the strongest gain expected among the sector indices of the S&P 500.

Today, Bank of America, Charles Schwab and Morgan Stanley will reveal their accounts before the opening of Wall Street.

In Europe, the Swiss biopharmaceutical giant Novartis announced this morning strong growth in its turnover and its margin in the second quarter, raised its forecasts and launched a share buyback of 15 billion dollars.

Against a background of recurring concerns about global growth, investors are also hoping that retail sales on the menu of the day in the United States will reflect the relative dynamism of the American economy.

Market participants are waiting for signs that the recent strength in consumption continued across the Atlantic in June.

In a note released yesterday, Jan Hatzius, the star economist at Goldman Sachs, said he had revised downwards, from 25% to 20%, the estimated probability of a recession in the United States over the next 12 months.

On the other hand, indicators reflecting the health of the US economy could dampen enthusiasm for equities, lest this prompt the Federal Reserve to continue its rate hikes.

The bond compartment signed a modestly positive start to the week yesterday with a slightly more marked upturn at the end of the session, with ten-year Treasuries falling back below the 3.80% threshold.

Exchanges are just as transparent on the currency front, even if the euro managed this morning to establish, at 1.1266 against the dollar, a new annual record and a highest since February 2022, i.e. say before the Russian offensive in Ukraine.

Both benchmark oil contracts are recovering only timidly, yesterday’s announcement of a slowdown in Chinese growth continues to fuel some fears about demand.

The barrel of Brent from the North Sea currently recovers 0.1% to 78.6 dollars, while American light crude oil (WTI) rebounds by almost 0.2% to 74.3 dollars.

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