(News Bulletin 247) – This article, in free access, is produced by the stock market analysis and strategy research team of News Bulletin 247. To not miss any opportunity, consult all the analyzes and discover our portfolios by accessing our Privileges area.
Although far from its session highs, the CAC 40 managed to preserve 0.72% on Wednesday, at 7,322 points, with the support of TotalEnergies (+3.41%) and banks. The latter have significantly rebounded after the soft patch experienced the day before, in the wake of the Meloni government’s surprise decision to apply a tax on the superprofits of banking establishments, which are ultra profitable in times of high interest rates.
Italy’s economy ministry said on Tuesday evening that the new tax could not exceed more than 0.1% of banks’ risk-weighted assets. This ceiling would maintain the tax at 3.2 billion against the 5 billion which had been assessed by the Italian press on Tuesday, specifies Il Sole 24 Ore in its market update published on Wednesday morning.
If the executive has watered down its wine, the reception by the market remains icy, despite the positive reaction of challenge to Italian bank shares. This burst of pride remains insufficient, however, to wipe out all of the heavy losses suffered the day before by Italian banking shares, in reaction to the country’s government’s surprise decision to introduce a 40% tax on their profits. At the close on Tuesday evening, Bper Banca had fallen by 10.9%, Monte dei Paschi di Siena by 10.8%, Finecobank had dropped 9.9%, Banco Bpm 9%. The first two banks Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit returned 8.7% and 5.9% respectively.
In this nervous context, operators will focus on Thursday on US inflation figures. See you at 2:30 p.m. for the publication of the CPIs. On the consensus side, prices are expected to rise over one year by 3.3% for the widest product base. Any overshoot of this “target” would mechanically cause tension on the side of the Fed, whose main mission is to avoid a surge in prices, in particular entry into a price/wage loop, a worst-case scenario avoided so far.
The tenor of the inflation figures could indeed give an indication of the US Federal Reserve’s rate intentions. A large proportion of investors (86.5%) are, however, expecting the status quo in September, according to the CME tool Fed Watch.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended Wednesday’s session in the red, like the Dow Jones (-0.54%) and especially the Nasdaq Composite (-1.17% ). The S&P500, the reference barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, contracted by 0.70%.
A point on the other risky asset classes: around 08:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0990. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in the financial markets, was trading around $84.50.
On the agenda this Thursday, to follow in priority the consumer price indices in the United States at 2:30 p.m. We will also follow the volume of weekly registrations for unemployment benefits across the Atlantic, at the same time.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The exit from the congestion figure on Friday July 21 was thwarted twice, on July 26, on a wide gap, and over the whole of the past week, on a break in the short moving average. The bullish message has momentarily lost its meaning. We will monitor any formation (and confirmation at the end of the session) of a bearish gap. We witnessed the perfect repeat of the August 02 candle on Tuesday, ie a school doji with elongated shadows, a marker of nervous indecision at the heart of an enlarged pattern of consolidation.
FORECAST
In view of the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 7500.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 7084.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
The News Bulletin 247 board
Hourly data chart
Chart in daily data
function creatOutbrainJs() {
const creatJs = document.createElement(“script”);
creatJs.defer = true;
creatJs.src = “https://widgets.outbrain.com/outbrain.js”;
return document.body.appendChild(creatJs);
}
window.didomiOnReady = window.didomiOnReady || [];
window.didomiOnReady.push(function(Didomi) {
console.log(“Didomi ready “);
Didomi.getObservableOnUserConsentStatusForVendor(164)
.filter(function (status) { return status !== undefined })
.subscribe(function(consentStatus) {
if (consentStatus === false || consentStatus === true) {
console.log(“Didomi consent -> exécution du script outbrain “, consentStatus);
creatOutbrainJs()
}
});
});
I have over 8 years of experience working in the news industry. I have worked as a reporter, editor, and now managing editor at 247 News Agency. I am responsible for the day-to-day operations of the news website and overseeing all of the content that is published. I also write a column for the website, covering mostly market news.
