(News Bulletin 247) – The Paris Stock Exchange should continue its decline on Wednesday morning, penalized by a new bout of fever on oil prices which is rekindling fears of a rise in inflationary tensions.

Around 8:15 a.m., the ‘futures’ contract on the CAC 40 index – September delivery – dropped 29 points to 7234.5 points, announcing a continuation of the consolidation movement of the last few days.

Black gold, which had already rebounded strongly this summer, stabilized at high levels this morning as Saudi Arabia decided to maintain the reduction of its production quotas until the end of the year.

Russia also announced its intention to reduce its exports, a surprise decision which should also limit the offer on the oil market.

As a result, the barrel of Brent from the North Sea is holding above the $90 threshold this morning, the highest since last autumn, while it was still hovering around $72 at the end of June.

‘This upside risk on the price of raw materials is all the more marked as the global industry is currently in recession’, warn the teams of Groupama AM.

‘Once the destocking is complete, the global industry will pick up again, and the upside risk on the price of energy and industrial raw materials will materialize more’, warns the asset manager.

While the strength of oil prices should benefit stocks linked to energy, it could above all have an unfavorable impact on inflation during the months of September and October.

“It is true that this factor will not directly affect core inflation, which excludes energy, but the risk is that this surge will have an indirect effect on other positions”, warns Jim Reid, at Deutsche Bank .

After being recently reassured by good price news, investors now fear that the resurgence of inflationary pressures will push central banks to maintain their tight monetary policy.

While analysts’ expectations for a Fed rate hike hovered around 6% last week, the probability of a quarter-point hike by the end of the month is now estimated at 7%.

Against a backdrop of rising inflation expectations with the rise in oil prices, the yield on the American ten-year rose to 4.27%, while the German ten-year peaked at 2.61%.

In the economic chapter, market participants will follow, this afternoon in the United States, the publication of the ISM for services, which should show that the sector remains in an expansion zone, a sign of the good health of the economy. American.

German industrial orders should, on the other hand, experience a sharp backlash in July after their extraordinary rebound (+7%) in June, which was due to solid orders in aeronautics.

‘Apart from this volatility, the underlying trend remains bearish’, remind analysts at Oddo BHF.

Retail sales in the eurozone, also expected in the morning, should also put pressure on European household consumption given the surge in inflation and the credit crunch.

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