by Claude Chendjou
PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to rebound very slightly on Thursday after the moderation of underlying inflationary pressures in the United States which fuels cautious optimism ahead of the monetary policy decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB).
According to the first available indications, the Parisian CAC 40 should open stable. The Dax in Frankfurt could gain 0.06% and the FTSE 100 in London 0.18%. The EuroStoxx 50 index is expected to be virtually unchanged.
Investors will learn of the ECB’s decisions at 12:15 GMT which will be followed half an hour later by a press conference by its president, Christine Lagarde.
While the markets were still largely counting on a status quo on rates from the ECB on Tuesday, a source reported to Reuters on Wednesday that the Frankfurt institute predicted inflation of more than 3% in the euro zone in 2024, which which has awakened fears of a further increase in the cost of credit in the euro zone.
The ECB has already increased its deposit rate from -0.5% to 3.75% over the past 14 months, the fastest rate of monetary tightening in its history, in order to curb high inflation.
In the United States, where the Federal Reserve (Fed) must also make its monetary policy decisions on September 20, if the consumer price index (CPI), published on Wednesday, showed an acceleration in August, to 0 .6% month-on-month and at 3.7% year-on-year, underlying inflation on the other hand slowed to 4.3% year-on-year.
A WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended in disarray on Wednesday after mixed consumer price data in August in the United States.
The Dow Jones index lost 0.20% to 34,575.53 points.
The broader S&P-500 gained 0.12% to 4,467.44 points.
The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.29% to 13,813.59 points.
“I don’t think the Fed wants to cause a shock and raise 25 basis points when it is expected that it will not do so, but rate hikes cannot be completely ruled out for the rest of the year,” commented Victoria Fernandez, strategist at Crossmark Global Investment.
Economists polled by Reuters said they expected the Federal Reserve would not cut rates until the second quarter of 2024.
Data on producer prices and retail sales in the United States, expected this Thursday, could influence the Fed’s decisions.
Tech giants including Tesla, Meta Platforms and Amazon rose more than 1%. Apple fell for a second consecutive session, by 1.2%, after unveiling on Tuesday its new range of iPhones whose base price will be unchanged.
IN ASIA
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index advanced 1.41% to 33,168.1 points and the broader Topix gained 1.13% to 2,405.57 points at the close, with investors welcoming the drop in core inflation in the United States.
The MSCI index bringing together stocks from Asia and the Pacific (excluding Japan) increased by 0.4%.
In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite dropped 0.30% and the CSI 300 lost 0.49%, penalized by the fall of Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers after the announcement of an investigation by the European Commission into the subsidies they provide. benefit.
CHANGES
The dollar is falling (-0.10%) against a basket of reference currencies, the market continuing to count on a pause on Fed rates next week.
The euro continues its rise, gaining 0.15% to 1.0744 dollars, before the ECB’s decisions.
The yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds fell further, by around two basis points, to 4.2327%, after having already lost ground the day before due to the moderation of underlying inflationary pressures.
The yield on the ten-year German Bund is practically stable, at 2.64%.
OIL
Oil prices are starting to rise again with the prospect of a tightening of supply over the rest of the year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday it expected a significant deficit on the crude market in the fourth quarter with OPEC+ production cuts.
Brent rose 0.54% to $92.38 per barrel and American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) rose 0.58% to $89.03.
(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Bertrand Boucey)
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