CAC 40: Red dominates

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Penalized by the firmness of bond yields, with long rates simply consolidating, the CAC 40 (-0.03%) on Wednesday remained moribund, especially as the prospects for a gradual normalization of inflation are thwarted by prices. of the barrel.Oil prices are increasing significantly, driven by a surprise drop in crude stocks in the United States last week, with a contraction of 2.2 million barrels, much more than the 900,000 anticipated by analysts. WTI was now close to $94 per barrel…

Tomorrow’s statistical meeting therefore takes on a very special meaning. “Investors will be scrutinizing the price index (PCE) excluding food and energy (the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure) this Friday to find out if the rate hike cycle is coming to an end,” warns César Perez Ruiz , Head of Investments and CIO at Pictet Wealth Management, who also warns: “The risk of blockage by the American administration, the famous “shutdown”, also threatens the markets, with the American Parliament considering that there is little time left to find an agreement to break the budgetary impasse.”

In terms of statistics, operators took note of durable goods orders for the month of August on Wednesday, up monthly by 0.4%, beating the consensus (+0.2%).

On the value side, TotalEnergies gained 1.65%, taking off at the end of the session, after announcing around 3 p.m. that its share buybacks would amount to $9 billion over the whole of 2023 while increasing its outlook on the return to shareholders. The action may also have been helped by the rise in oil prices. Voltalia plunged 15.7% after revising downwards its gross operating profit target for 2023 due to a power outage in Brazil in mid-August which penalized the network connections of its power plants.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended Wednesday’s session in mixed order, the Dow Jones falling 0.20% to 33,550 points and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.22% to 13 092 points. The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, remained stable at 4,274 points.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8:00 this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0500. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $93.70.

On the agenda this Thursday, to follow as a priority for the United States the final Q2 GDP data and weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, at 2:30 p.m.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The flagship tricolor index came out yesterday from the bottom of a diamond figure; we were awaiting confirmation, in particular from a sectoral federation, since the luxury sector alone is not enough to categorize the movement. We had participation yesterday from the technology sector, and to some extent from the automotive sector. A pullback on the diamond is not excluded, before bearish tensions resume.

FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is below resistance at 7084.00 points.

Hourly graph

Daily Data Chart