EUR/USD: No American benchmarks, but European PMIs

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No valuable benchmarks from Wall Street today, due to the unmissable Thanksgiving holidays, but indicators of activity in Europe on the menu. The PMIs, in first estimates for the current month, without deviating significantly from their respective targets, pleasantly surprised, particularly on the industrial component (43.8), notably thanks to an increase in the German score.

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, provided the following comments and additional insights: “while the decline in overall activity has accelerated in France, the composite PMI index signals a slowdown in contraction in Germany. The invalidation by the Constitutional Court of the special off-budget fund used by the German government to finance its public investments risks, however, putting a brake on this trend, and relegating Germany to the back of the pack during the new year.”

A market psychology ultimately unchanged, in which currency traders still seem to believe in the ideal “Goldilocks” type scenario, “this tale popularized by the Brothers Grimm in the 18th century”, as Christopher Dembik, financial advisor, explains. investment strategy at Pictet AM. “In its most widespread version, a young girl with blond hair (“Goldilocks”) enters a house inhabited by a family of three bears who have gone away. She then tastes the three bowls of porridge, preferring the one of the bear, neither too hot like that of the father, nor too cold like that of the mother. In economics, the “goldilocks” scenario refers to an optimal situation where growth is modest, but very real, and moderate inflation. This is now the scenario that dominates the financial markets after the publication of inflation in the United States.”

The statistical agenda, almost deserted at the start of the week, expanded on Wednesday, with new weekly registrations for unemployment benefits, still close to the 200,000 mark, and orders for durable goods, stable in October, below expectations, excluding transportation equipment. RAS regarding revised data from the American Consumer Confidence Index (U-Mich) to 61.3.

At midday on the foreign exchange market, the Euro was trading against $1.0920 approximately.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

At this stage, an essential observation is necessary. Following the training of marubozu school Tuesday 14/11, spot built an extremely short consolidation, pennant on the upper part of the candle mentioned, before rising early, proof of the bubbling impatience of the buying camp.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is neutral in the medium term on the Euro Dollar (EURUSD).

We will maintain this neutral opinion as long as Euro Dollar (EURUSD) prices are positioned between support at 1.0822 USD and resistance at 1.1012 USD.

DAILY DATA CHART