CAC 40: LVMH, which accounts for more than 15% of the index, sets the

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The surge in the prices of LVMH (+12.81% to 773.10 euros), the largest capitalistic weight by far in the CAC 40, will have enabled the flagship tricolor index to record a new historical record in closing data ( 7,634 points), in increasing volumes on Friday. The luxury giant has fully reassured the financial community by issuing an excellent quarterly copy. In particular, LVMH recorded sales of 23.95 billion euros over the last three months of 2023, delivering growth of 10% year-on-year on a comparable basis. Which marks an acceleration compared to the third (+9% on a comparable basis).

In the wake of our French champion, a whole section of the rating has shone, like L’Oreal (+2.94%), Interparfums (+5.25%), Kering (+6 .59%), Hermès (+6.63%), Pernod-Ricard (+7.85%), Christian Dior (+12.04%), and Remy Cointreau (+15.16%).

Enough to almost overshadow the statistics of the day on Friday, namely PCE prices, the Fed’s preferred measure in its reading of inflation. In December, this index increased by 2.9% over one year, excluding energy and food prices, a little less than the 3% expected by economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal. This is its lowest level in almost three years, according to Agence France Presse.

Operators were able to calmly digest the ECB’s latest monetary policy meeting, in the second part of last week. A Council of Governors which unsurprisingly ended in a status quo on rates.

“Like other major economies, disinflation is spreading across the eurozone as supply shocks dissipate and financial conditions tighten. That said, the ECB continues to exercise caution, refraining from claiming victory in its quest to restore inflation to its target level. Recent concerted efforts to dispel expectations of rate cuts as early as March indicate a strategic move to influence financial markets and the perceptions of workers and companies, while salary negotiations and pricing strategies at the corporate level are at the heart of concerns at the start of the year.”, for Gurpreet Gill, Macro Strategist Global Fixed Income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, which continues “to believe that the ECB could move towards rate cuts from the end of spring, if disinflation persists and if disruptions in the supply chain, linked to geopolitics, do not worsen No more.”

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended the last session of the week in dispersed order, like the Dow Jones (+0.16% to the zenith at 38,109 points) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.36% to 15,455 points). Unsurprisingly, the S&P500, the reference barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, played the average by finishing in balance, at 4,890 points.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8:00 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0840. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $78.10.

On the agenda this Monday, no major statistical benchmark is to be reported. See you tomorrow to read, among other data, the American consumer confidence index (Conference Board).

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The bevel (wedge) which had predominated until then was broken in its momentum by the formation of a large gap and an increase in gains during the session itself on Friday January 26. A major challenge now awaits the CAC: the creation of a series of absolute records. To do this, the participation of only the luxury and spirits sectors would be necessary.

FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 7695.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 7406.00 points would restart the selling pressure.

Hourly graph

Daily Data Chart