CAC 40: Allegro ma non troppo, can we read on the score of the CAC

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Yet another new record in session data yesterday for the CAC 40 which reached 8,218.07 points before beginning a slight decline after the publication of American producer prices, one of the leading indicators of inflation. These producer prices rose monthly by 0.6%, well beyond expectations (+0.3%), excluding food and energy. “This is an important publication, because several components of the producer price index feed into the PCE inflation measure, which is the one that the Fed officially targets,” underlines Deutsche Bank. The publication, at the same time, of new weekly registrations for unemployment benefits still very close to the floor of 200,000 also constituted a warning for the trajectory of inflation, once again highlighting the tensions on the job market. job.

Furthermore, still across the Atlantic, retail sales were less robust than expected, with an increase of 0.6% last month, where the market expected an increase of 0.8%. “While financial markets are largely focused on inflation figures, data on economic activity continues to disappoint. American consumption is off to a bad start in 2024 and the Fed will probably soon have to worry about its second term , that is to say full employment, because conditions on the labor market are starting to deteriorate”, comments Bastien Drut, Head of Strategy and Economic Studies at CPRAM.

In terms of values, GTT returned 4.2%, after a share placement which marks the end of the process of disengagement from the capital of the energy group Engie.

Biomérieux contained its decline to 0.1% after publishing annual results in line with expectations.

ID Logistics Group rebounded by 5.7% following the presentation of sharply increased annual accounts in 2023. The Orgon-based group has maintained its profitability while continuing its active international development.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices took a legitimate breath in the heart of a too rapid musical movement, like the Dow Jones (-0.35% to 38,905 points) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.30% to 16,128 points). The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, contracted by 0.29% to 5,150 points.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8:00 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.0880. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $80.60.

On the agenda this Friday across the Atlantic, the Empire State manufacturing index at 1:30 p.m., the federal report on industry at 2:15 p.m. and the consumer confidence index (U-Mich, preliminary data), at 3:00 p.m.

Let us continue to point out that since Monday, Wall Street opens at 2:30 p.m. (Paris time), and not 3:30 p.m., quite simply because the East Coast of the United States has already switched to summer time, and we have not yet. The big statistical meetings, often scheduled for 2:30 p.m., are scheduled in the meantime at 1:30 p.m.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

Thanks to the crossing volumes, the bullish extension since Tuesday and the sectoral federation, we can swing the 8,000 psychological points into support, against which in the long term, a pullback (graphic rejection of confirmation) is not excluded. Now is the time to take a breather from the lessons.

FORECAST

Considering the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 9000.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 8000.00 points would restart the selling pressure.

Hourly graph

Daily Data Chart