by Diana Mandia

PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to fall at the opening on Monday, with caution needed before the publication of data on American inflation this week.

According to the first available indications, the Parisian CAC 40 could lose 0.08% at the opening.

Futures contracts report a decline of 0.01% for the Dax in Frankfurt, 0.26% for the FTSE in London and 0.12% for the Stoxx 600.

The week will be rich in indicators on inflation, particularly in the United States, with price developments remaining at the center of market attention while most major central banks are hinting that they will lower their interest rates. interest in the coming months.

US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was sufficiently flexible last week in his statements after the Fed’s monetary policy meeting that markets now estimate a 74% chance of monetary easing in June , compared to 55% a week earlier.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which will be published on Friday in the United States, is expected to increase by 0.4% in February compared to January and by 2.8% over one year. Any stronger-than-expected increase in this indicator favored by the Fed for measuring inflation could dampen hopes of a rate cut in June in the United States.

In Europe, markets will also be tracking consumer price data in France, Italy, Belgium and Spain this week, ahead of the release of eurozone inflation figures on April 3.

Sweden’s central bank is expected to keep rates at 4% on Wednesday, although the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) surprise easing last week has boosted hopes of an accommodative stance.

WEEKLY UPDATE-Inflation at the center of market attention after monetary policy

A WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange ended in disorganized order on Friday.

The Dow Jones index lost 0.77% and the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 0.14%. The latter, however, recorded its strongest weekly increase of 2024, supported by the Fed’s forecast of three interest rate cuts by the end of the year.

The Nasdaq Composite, for its part, advanced 0.16%.

In terms of values, Nike shares fell 6.9% after the American equipment manufacturer’s warning on its turnover for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year, now expected to decline.

The semiconductor index rose sharply over the past week on continued optimism about artificial intelligence.

IN ASIA

The Tokyo Stock Exchange ended down 1.16% on Monday, with investors taking profits after Friday’s record close.

Masato Kanda, Japan’s deputy finance minister for international affairs, warned speculators against the yen’s weakening against the dollar, saying its weakness did not reflect the fundamentals of the economy.

In China, the composite index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange fell by 0.11% and the CSI 300 of large capitalizations lost 0.05%. The yuan rose against the dollar as sources said China’s main state-owned banks took steps to stabilize the currency, which fell to a four-month low on Friday.

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange fell by 0.03%.

RATES/EXCHANGES

US bond markets are stable on Monday after their decline on Friday.

The yield on ten-year Treasury bonds stands at 4.208% and that on two years at 4.6018%.

On the foreign exchange market, the dollar gained 0.32% against a basket of reference currencies and the euro rose 0.1% to 1.0816 dollars.

In Japan, the yen rose 0.13% to 151.22 per dollar after coming close to its lowest level in 32 years.

OIL

The barrel of Brent rose by 0.49% and that of American light crude (WTI) by 0.58% amid concerns about the tightening of supply caused by conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and the Ukraine, the decrease in the number of drilling platforms in the United States accentuating upward pressure on prices.

(Written by Diana Mandiá)

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