(News Bulletin 247) – The conflict in Ukraine should penalize all styles of securities on Monday, the pre-opening suggesting a start to the session in the red, in equivalent proportions whether on the Dow Jones, rich in banking and industrial, the S&P 500 , balanced and broadened, and the Nasdaq Composite, densely represented in growth stocks, often technological. The first sanctions measures point to a continued rise in oil prices, weighing on global growth at the worst time, in the midst of a critical post-health crisis phase. “Following these various announcements over the weekend, investors should turn to the US dollar as a reserve exchange value, but also to the price of gold” warns Vincent Boy (IG France). To the detriment, therefore, of the risky assets that constitute the shares, and more particularly the shares of the pan “Growth” of the rating.
The question is to what extent the Fed will opt for a less steep monetary turn. “As a reminder, the US Federal Reserve must end asset purchases in early March, before raising its rates at the FOMC on March 15 and 16. The current situation, and in particular the race for the dollar, could put a stop to this calendar. to enable it to support the monetary system. The probability of a rate hike of 50 bps also fell sharply over the weekend, dropping from 25% to just 5% this morning,” notes M Boy.
On the data side, the main macroeconomic figures took a back seat on Friday despite being satisfactory, whether for PCE prices, durable goods orders and household income and spending in the United States. To follow the Chicago PMI at 3:45 p.m. on Monday. Missed target for the trade balance of goods in January, the deficit passing the symbolic bar of 100 billion dollars.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
As a reminder, here are a number of key elements presented on Wednesday: “Congestion is expected between 13,330 points and 14,445 points, i.e. a wide band where operators’ nervousness can be expressed. In the event of an exit by the low, especially in thick volumes, the technical situation becomes problematic. As such, week 07 was a very high technical stake. The weekly closing level, of importance, is practically on the lows of the week.” In the light of the strength of the breach of this threshold, the 13,330 points are swung into major resistance, even if the index came to end Thursday’s session above it. The technical conditions of the breakout are indeed eloquent: bearish engulfing lined with a school black marubozu. The sales mobilization will have lasted the entire session.
The buying mobilization throughout Thursday’s session is impressive and further validates the entry into a phase of high volatility. We remain negative below 13,330 points for the time being.
FORECAST
Considering the key chart factors we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
This bearish scenario is valid as long as the Nasdaq Composite Index is trading below the resistance at 14445.00 points.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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