(News Bulletin 247) – The leading Parisian index opted for caution at mid-session while awaiting a new series of American economic indicators.

The Paris Stock Exchange is hesitating at mid-session, before the publication in the afternoon of a battery of economic indicators in the United States. After gaining up to 0.4%, the CAC 40 is now slightly down by 0.15% at 7,321.42 points this Thursday at mid-session.

Unsurprisingly, volumes are anemic (290 million euros traded since the opening), on this Assumption Day which is a public holiday but not a non-working day on the Paris Stock Exchange.

On Wednesday, the leading Paris index gained 0.8%, reassured by US inflation figures in line with analysts’ expectations. And this came the day after producer prices were also reassuring. This opens the door to monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve in September.

Speculation over the extent of the rate cut

According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the probability that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point has risen to 62.5% from 45% the previous week, while only 37.5% of the markets are considering a more pronounced move (0.5 percentage points) from 45% a week earlier.

“Investors are speculating on the size of these potential cuts, with a 40% probability that the Fed will opt for a 50 basis point cut, although many believe a 25 basis point cut is more likely. The Fed’s annual meeting in Jackson Hole, scheduled for late August, has become a crucial event to understand Chairman Jerome Powell’s position and the future direction of monetary policy,” says Antonio Ernesto Di Giacomo of Xs.com.

Earlier this morning, traders took note of encouraging economic data from Asia. In Japan, GDP growth proved more robust than expected in the second quarter. The Japanese economy grew by 3.1% year-on-year, while economists had expected growth of 2.1% at an annual rate.

American consumption in the crosshairs

In China, retail sales, a barometer of household consumption, were also reassuring. They rose by 2.7% over one year in July, exceeding the expectations of economists who had anticipated a rise of 2.6%, still at an annual rate.

But all eyes will of course be on the United States. Several indicators on Thursday’s agenda will provide new indications on the health of the world’s largest economy, which remains at the heart of investors’ concerns.

Traders will therefore take note of retail sales for July, unemployment benefit registrations as well as the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing indices at 2:30 p.m., followed by industrial production figures also for July at 3:15 p.m.

The quarterly results of the American retail giant Walmart will also provide an overview of the morale of American consumers.

Worldline in the Adyen wheel

On the business side in France, the news is sparse.

Worldline rose by 0.5%, following half-year results that exceeded expectations for its Dutch peer Adyen, which gained 7.5% on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro is stable at 1.1014 dollars. Oil prices have started to rise again, supported by a positive statistic in China and fears about a potential extension of the conflict in the Middle East. The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in October, rose by 0.7% to 80.28 dollars while that of WTI for delivery the same month, appreciated by 0.6%, to 77.47 dollars.