(Reuters) – Exxon Mobil Corp said on Monday it expects crude oil demand to remain above 100 million barrels per day (bpd) through 2050, in line with current levels, a forecast 25% higher than BP’s.

The announcements, made by Exxon in its latest global oil outlook report, underpin ambitious production growth plans by the top U.S. oil producer.

In its previous outlook, published in 2023, the company did not provide data on demand through 2050.

Exxon was also more pessimistic than its British rival about reducing global CO2 emissions. The group expects technological advances to allow for reductions after 2029, while BP sees them occurring as early as the middle of the decade.

The US oil major plans to pump 4.3 million barrels of oil and gas per day this year, 30% more than the current output of Chevron, its main rival in the United States.

BP plans to cut production to around 2 million barrels per day by 2030.

“The demand for oil and gas has a very, very long life and will continue to grow over the next several years,” Chris Birdsall, Exxon’s director of economics, energy and strategic planning, told Reuters.

According to the Houston-based company, the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) will not have a long-term impact on demand, as the increase in the world’s population, expected to reach nearly 10 billion by 2050, will automatically lead to an increase in energy needs.

The group says that even if all cars sold in 2035 were EVs, crude oil demand would still be 85 million bpd, the same as in 2010.

These estimates represent more than triple the 24 million bpd of crude that would enable global carbon neutrality by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Exxon predicts that by 2050, oil, natural gas and coal will account for 67% of the global energy mix, down from 68% last year.

The shift to alternative energy sources such as shale gas will not affect demand for oil investments, Exxon said, because known fields have shorter lives and show steeper natural decline.

In the absence of new investments, production would decline by around 15% per year, the group added, a steeper decline than that expected by the IEA, which had forecast 8% in estimates published in 2018.

This rate of decline could lead to a five-fold increase in oil prices, with global supply falling to 30 million bpd by 2030, according to Chris Birdsall.

“The world’s oil and natural gas reserves would virtually disappear without continued investment,” he also said.

“The main reason for this change is the shift to shorter-cycle unconventional assets,” he added.

(Report by Sabrina Valle; by Mara Vîlcu, edited by Augustin Turpin)

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