CAC 40: Nvidia has published, let’s focus on macro

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

The star stock finally released as investors eagerly awaited the release. Nvidia’s revenue more than doubled in the latest quarter. Revenue came in at $30 billion, up 122% from a year ago. Analysts had expected $28.7 billion. The announcements didn’t thrill investors, as the stock was down 6% to 8% after the close following the announcements. Still, Nvidia expects revenue of $32.5 billion for the current quarter, about $1 billion above consensus expectations. The company also authorized an additional $50 billion in share buybacks. Investors, however, sent another stock to new heights. Berkshire Hathaway became the first publicly traded U.S. company outside of the technology sector to be valued at $1 trillion. In May, Warren Buffett slowed down the company’s share buyback program and revealed in June that he hadn’t bought a single share that month. Buffett has complete discretion over the buyback program and typically cuts back on purchases when he believes the stock is overvalued. Looking back at the tech sector, another news story shook the markets yesterday. Indeed, Super Micro Computer plunged 20% after the company said it would delay filing its 10-K report. Closer to home, in France, Eiffage maintained its 2024 guidance, as the group hopes to achieve net profit “in the same range as in 2023,” despite the decline in activity in its construction division. Today, we are expecting another round of publications, with Pernod Ricard and Delivery Hero in Europe. In the United States, the list is longer, including Dell, Autodesk, Lululemon, Ulta Beauty (Buffett’s latest acquisition), Birkenstock and MongoDB. While investors should continue to monitor microeconomic publications, they will become fewer and fewer in number as the high point with Nvidia’s publication is now a thing of the past. Operators will return to macroeconomic considerations with a lot of information to follow today. We are waiting for inflation in Germany, consumer confidence in the Eurozone, then the US quarterly GDP and weekly unemployment claims. Finally, this evening at 9:30 p.m. French time, Bostic, a member of the Fed, is due to speak.

Technical Section: The Paris index is still in the middle of its previous range for the moment and is setting up three consecutive hesitation candlesticks formed by high wicks signaling the absence of additional enthusiasm to continue the rebound. If investors fail to exceed the highs of the last three days, the risk of consolidation towards the support is significant, it also coincides with the passage of the 50-period moving average which should play a role of dynamic support.

FORECAST

Considering the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This bearish scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 index is trading below the resistance at 7690.00 points.

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